Analysis

All Blacks v Springboks: Breaking down the key numbers from Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour

Cameron McMillan
Analysis by
Cameron McMillan is Deputy Head of Sport for NZME. He has been a sports journalist for 20 years and was on duty in 2011, when the All Blacks put things right.
Will Jordan is tackled during the fourth test between the All Blacks and Springboks in Baltimore. Photo / Photosport
Herald sport journalists Cameron McMillan and Chris Reive recap the success of Hayden Wilde and Liam Lawson, and the failures of the Wahs and ABs. Video / Ryan Bridge TODAY

The series result may have read Springboks 3 All Blacks 1, but the Herald dives deeper to find the difference between the sides across Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry... and a possible change in philosophy about three-pointers.

At a glimpse, the statistics make it appear the All Blacks had the better of the Boks – they had fewer turnovers, missed tackles and scored more tries.

But it was penalties and set-pieces that were key across the four tests.

The All Blacks were 86% at lineout time with eight lost, while the Springboks were at 96% for the series. At restarts received, South Africa were a perfect 28 from 28 while the All Blacks were 16 from 20, according to RugbyPass.

This season, the All Blacks are averaging two lost lineouts a test, while their opponents are at 0.7 per test.

The scrum was the biggest issue for the All Blacks, where they conceded 14 penalties, one of which was a penalty try.

Overall discipline, including at scrum-time, let the All Blacks down. They conceded more penalties in three of the four tests, in the last test the penalty count was 9-9.

In seven tests in 2026, the opening game against France is the only match where Dave Rennie’s side conceded fewer penalties than the opposition. In previous seasons the All Blacks were penalised less.

The All Blacks missed 32 tackles in Baltimore, the highest number since 46 against the Springboks in Wellington last year.

Interestingly, they conceded 43 points in both tests.

One bright spot: The All Blacks only had one yellow card in the test series, though they had three in the opening tour game against the Stormers.

The All Blacks’ card count sits at three through seven tests in 2026 (Ruben Love picking up two of them). Last season, they had nine in 13 tests.

Tries time

The All Blacks are also scoring tries. They have 35 across seven tests this year, averaging five a test. It was four a test last season. They have conceded 23, with 10 coming in the last two tests.

There has also been a goal-kicking improvement, mainly down to Love – though Damian McKenzie’s four from four in Baltimore helped.

The All Blacks have converted 77% of their tries, up from 73% last year.

The biggest change for the Springboks from the first test to the fourth was the final quarter. They scored just three points in the final 20 minutes of tests one and two but scored 24 in the last two tests.

Last year, under Scott Robertson, the All Blacks had a significant point-difference change in the third quarter of -57.

Rennie’s All Blacks appear to be slower starters. Ireland are the only test opponents who didn’t score a try in the opening 20 minutes. The All Blacks have scored the first points just twice in seven tests this year.

Don’t kick your threes

The All Blacks have converted just one penalty in the 11 matches they have played this season, to go up by four points with 15 minutes remaining against France in the opening test of the Rennie era. Love missed an attempt in the third test against South Africa.

In the 13 matches they played last year, they landed 16 penalties. McKenzie kicked 26 alone in 2024, the first season under Razor.

Maybe this is a new trend. Australia, South Africa, England and Scotland all failed to kick a penalty in the Nations Championship matches in June and July, while Ireland converted one. France led the way with four.

Player stats

Carries

Jasper Wiese 56

Will Jordan 45

Damian de Allende 40

Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu 38

Jordie Barrett 36

Tupou Vaa’i 33

Cam Roigard 32

Damian McKenzie 29

Quinn Tupaea 28

Pieter-Steph du Toit 27

Tackles completed

Jordie Barrett 55

Pieter-Steph du Toit 47

Eben Etzebeth 46

Damian de Allende 44

Jasper Wiese 43

Ruan Nortje 42

Malcolm Marx 41

Peter Lakai 32

Jesse Kriel 29

Ox Nche 29

Wilco Louw 29

Ardie Savea 28

Penalties conceded

Tyrel Lomax 4

Ethan de Groot 4

Ox Nche 4

George Bower 4

Tupou Vaa’i 4

Eben Etzebeth 3

Codie Taylor 3

Cobus Reinach 3

One statistic that jumped out was turnovers lost: Will Jordan had 24 – well ahead of the field. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu was next with 10.

Maybe this is a strong sign of how the All Blacks struggled under the high ball.

Forty-eight players made the field for the All Blacks in South Africa across the eight matches. Kyle Preston was the only player to feature across every match.

In terms of test starters, Rennie has gone with Roigard, Jordie Barrett, Jordan and McKenzie in every test so far in 2026. Five different locks have started (Josh Lord, Sam Darry, Tupou Vaa’i, Fabian Holland and Patrick Tuipulotu) and four in the No 6 jersey (Peter Lakai, Wallace Sititi, Vaa’i and Simon Parker).

- Statistics via RugbyPass and greatest-rivalry.com