Election 2026: The 10 battleground electorate races to watch tonight

National is throwing significant resources behind Muralidhar, while Labour is making an unusually strong push, potentially benefiting from any split in the right-wing vote.

Auckland Central has swung between National, Labour and in recent years, the Greens.

Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick first won it in 2020. and she now faces a challenge from former Labour MP Naisi Chen, who is making a concerted push to return to Parliament, and National’s first-time candidate Candace Kinser.

Mt Albert is a historic Labour stronghold, playing host to high-profile former party leaders, but the 2023 election came down to just 18 votes, making it one of the country’s tightest electorate contests.

Incumbent Labour MP Helen White faces a rematch with National’s Melissa Lee, while the Greens’ Ricardo Menéndez March and Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong have also joined the race.

A recent poll put White just one point ahead of Lee, while the split between left-wing candidates could prove significant.

While the smallest electorate in the country, Epsom is New Zealand’s most strategically significant seat.

It has helped Act maintain a parliamentary presence below the 5% party vote threshold through an informal arrangement with National, but with Act now comfortably above 5% and National’s Paul Goldsmith at risk of falling out of Parliament, National has campaigned on ending that deal, urging voters to mark “two ticks blue”.

Goldsmith is challenging popular incumbent David Seymour, but political commentators question whether voters will abandon a voting arrangement ingrained over several elections.

Wairarapa is a traditional National-Labour swing seat, but former New Zealand First deputy leader Ron Mark is attempting a political comeback.

With a low list spot, Mark may need to win the electorate to return to Parliament.

He faces incumbent National MP Mike Butterick and Labour’s Kieran McAnulty, who lost the seat by 2816 votes in 2023.

The result in Wairarapa could also have implications for Labour’s future leadership, with McAnulty previously touted as a potential contender to lead the party.

National’s incumbent Ōtaki MP Tim Costley facing Labour’s 26-year-old candidate Sophie Handford, a former Kāpiti Coast councillor and former youth climate campaigner.

The race has seen a shake-up this election, with boundary changes adding parts of the abolished Mana and Ōtaki electorates to the race, including North Porirua and the Kāpiti Coast.

Perhaps the most consequential electorate race in the country, the Hutt South contest has the potential to put National’s high-profile frontbencher Chris Bishop out of Parliament altogether.

If he fails to hold the seat, he is unlikely to be elected as a list MP because National is expected to win more electorate seats than its party vote share – meaning it gets no list MPs.

Bishop conceded in July that he considered himself “highly unlikely” to win his seat again, but has since softened his stance.

Nelson was one of the closest electorate contests in 2023, with Labour’s Rachel Boyack retaining the seat by just 26 votes after a recount, despite National winning the party vote.

National’s Blair Cameron is again challenging Boyack, seeking to reclaim a seat held by the party for more than two decades under former MP Nick Smith.

The largest electorate in the country is wide open this election, with neither of the main parties’ previous MPs contesting the seat after National’s Maureen Pugh retired and Labour’s Damien O’Connor moved to Dunedin.

National has selected former Federated Farmers president and dairy farmer Katie Milne, while Labour is running teacher Rory Paterson, NZ First is running former Buller mayor Jamie Cleine.

Wigram has a strong left-wing history, but boundary changes have redrawn its political make-up, removing traditionally safe Labour suburbs and adding more National-leaning areas from Selwyn.

With long-serving Labour MP Megan Woods retiring, the party is putting forward newcomer Dominik Yanzick against National’s Tracy Summerfield, who came close to Woods in 2023.

The Herald published an in-depth analysis of each of these seats in the lead-up to today’s election, you can read that original story here.