Election 2026: The 10 battleground electorate races to watch

The predictions below should be read alongside rapidly changing developments in key Māori seats, notably Tāmaki Makaurau, where Te Pāti Māori’s Oriini Kaipara has a likely walkover after the resignation of Labour’s Kerrin Leoni on Friday and Te Tai Tokerau, which a recent poll predicts could go to the Greens.

Political commentator and National Party pollster David Farrar has been profiling electorates based on current public polling, while Otago University political researcher Dr Michael Swanson has analysed the country’s bellwether seats. Both provided their expert perspectives on the Herald’s 10 general electorates to watch.

Until recently, Tāmaki was a National stronghold since 1960, when former Prime Minister Sir Robert Muldoon won the seat in the first of 11 consecutive elections.

It remained blue until 2023, when former National MP Simon O’Connor lost to Act’s then-Deputy leader Brooke van Velden.

A professional electorate, it has the highest share of people employed as managers in the country.

Van Velden has since left politics, but Act has put up former National Party candidate James Christmas against National’s Mahesh Muralidhar, a CEO and early leader at graphic design site Canva, and Labour’s Max Harris, a barrister and high-profile campaigner.

All three candidates are campaigning hard and Tāmaki residents have told the Herald it’s been a fascinating race to watch.

As he walks the streets, with a beaming smile on his face, Muralidhar says, “I’m the only local that’s competing in this race.”

“I’ve knocked on over 15,000 doors now, raised $15,000 for a new community patrol in Glen Innes, and [I’m] actually dealing with intensification, which is a core issue in our area.

“The community has come out so strong, it’s been wonderful, we have an amazing group of volunteers, so feeling very positive and excited to turn Tamaki blue again.”

Christmas thinks it’ll stay Act Party pink.

With a solid crew of sign wavers at rush hour in Remuera, Christmas agrees intensification is the number one issue at street corner meetings and on the doorstep.

“There’s been real dismay with the way the major parties have dealt with intensification in our suburbs, but more broadly than that, we have the same issues with cost of living, health, crime, the issues that people are worried about everywhere, and I’m taking Act’s plan to sort those to the electorate,” Christmas says, waving at cars as they beep.

Labour has traditionally not put a huge effort into the seat, but that’s changed this time, Christmas admits.

“Labour’s putting up a bigger effort here than they have in the past, and I know the Labour candidate quite well. In some ways, it’s sort of a good old first-past-the-post style election race.”

Harris has spent a chunk of his campaign in Glen Innes and Point England, physically only streets away from Glendowie and St Heliers, but a world away economically.

“We think our chances are good and we feel like we’ve got momentum on our side,” Harris tells the Herald.

“The electorate boundaries have changed this election, with Point England coming into the electorate.

“We’ve been doorknocking since April, and we’ve had amazing teams, especially of young people. We’ve also been hosting a community clinic here at the office, and there are three main issues that have come up.”

Those are cost of living, health and the economy, Harris said.

Farrar said about 15 National Party ministers have gone to Tāmaki to campaign for Muralidhar.

“This isn’t like Epsom in the past where they’ve been quite happy to lose. National is throwing everything they can behind Mahesh.”

Swanson said Christmas is a “really switched-on candidate”, but might be negatively impacted by strategic voting campaigns on the right calling for people to give their candidate votes to National, and party votes to Act, to create an overhang.

“If there is a sizeable vote split there, that’s where Max Harris comes into play, if there is a real breakdown in the communication around who you should vote for in your electorate vote, and quite a few split their vote ... that could open the door for Harris to sort of sneak into the discussion a wee bit.”

In Auckland Central, politicians and aspiring candidates can be meeting trendy cafe owners one minute, apartment dwellers the next and pulling weeds on Hauraki Gulf islands by the afternoon.

One of the country’s most vibrant and affluent electorates, the seat has flipped between National, Labour and now the Greens over the years.

Despite the red wave that engulfed the country at the 2020 election, the seat turned Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick’s way. She held it in 2023 with a nearly 4000 vote majority.

“I take nothing for granted, and nothing’s kind of set in stone,” Swarbrick replied when asked if she believed she’d hold the seat.

Boundary changes mean Auckland Central now takes in more of Grey Lynn and Western Springs, including at Western Springs College, a school with politically aware and interested students.

“That means a lot of door knocking, to ensure that people are aware that they’re in the electorate, and to also familiarise ourselves with the local issues there.”

Swarbrick beams as she talks about Auckland Central, saying she loves the electorate’s diversity, helping central city businesses, the homeless and students.

Labour’s Naisi Chen loves the seat too.

The former list MP has had three years out in the wilderness – campaigning for failed US Presidential candidate Kamala Harris and studying in China as a Visiting Scholar at Tsinghua University.

“It’s really, really exciting,” she gushes, when asked about the race.

“I’ve been doing a lot of on-the-ground work, door knocking, phone banking, visiting businesses, and people have been very positive to Labour’s messages ... I’m hoping to pull them back into Labour.”

She wants to give Auckland Central voters a choice – with a slight dig at Swarbrick.

“Not being party leader gives me more time to serve the people of Auckland Central, but it’s putting your best foot forward, being the best advocate you can.”

At 34 on Labour’s list, winning the seat looks crucial if she wants to return to the capital.

“This is a seat I’m deeply passionate about, either way it’s a privilege to be here and campaigning here. 34 is one of the places on the list when on some polls you’re in, some you’re out, but it’s really where every party vote counts.”

Swarbrick says being party leader doesn’t detract from the work she does in the seat.

“Being an electorate MP is also an incredible opportunity to demonstrate what local politics looks like. And to show people also, at a really local level, how we organise to win things.

“Because when you are able to, help to save or support an urban food farm, or help to restore a building, or support a local business and staying in business, that shows people that there is value in engaging in politics, and it allows us to then lift our sights and see that more is possible if we work together at a larger and larger scale.”

National’s Texan-born tech entrepreneur candidate Candace Kinser is standing for Parliament for the first time, but has been involved in the party behind the scenes for some time.

“I’m hearing Auckland Central voters say they simply want to continue to feel safe in the community, get a solid education for their kids, and trust that a centre-right coalition is being responsible and not going to drive the economy off a fiscal cliff that we can’t recover from. Simple as that,” Kinser told the Herald.

“They’ve recently been reminded how reckless the last government was with law and order, they are seeing huge improvements in their children’s performance in school, and while the cost of living and economy is tough, they understand that we are turning a corner and how important it is to stay the course. Overall, I’m very optimistic about the outcome of this election.”

Act’s Antonia Modkova is pushing her supporters Kinser’s way.

“I believe Candace has strong support in Auckland Central, and I’ll be cheering her on to win the seat and help build a stronger National-Act coalition,” Modkova said.

“Unlocking New Zealand’s potential means re-electing the coalition and giving it the mandate to go further and faster on the issues New Zealanders care about.”

The central Auckland seat includes the communities of Point Chevalier, Westmere, and Grey Lynn and is home to Eden Park.

Considered a Labour stronghold, it has never been held by any other party since its creation in 1946, and has been represented by Labour heavyweights Helen Clark, David Shearer, and Jacinda Ardern.

In the 2023 blue wave, National’s Melissa Lee came close, but lost out to Labour’s Helen White by only 18 votes, the slimmest margin of the election.

Shaking hands, waving, and snacking on local delicacies at the Wesley markets during a campaign event, White looks energised and excited.

She knows she’s in for a tight race but is confident she’ll hold the prized Labour seat.

“This is a very important race, I’m working very hard, but I am not taking anything for granted,” she said on the campaign trail.

“You can see this amazing place, it needs someone who is a local champion.”

But Lee is again eyeing the seat, with a Curia poll commissioned by The Spinoff putting her at 32%, a whisker behind the incumbent White at 33%.

The Green Party’s Ricardo Menéndez March came third in that poll, and Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong fourth.

“That could ironically help Melissa Lee,” Farrar said, suggesting the left risks splitting the vote.

“If you go back to the fundamentals, it is a quite heavily left-wing party vote seat, and National’s polling less than last time, so it will really come down to how that left vote splits.”

Current polling has Menéndez March and Wong entering Parliament regardless on their party lists, but White, placed 37 on Labour’s list, and Lee, at 29 for National, both need to win this seat to survive.

The smallest electorate in the country, Epsom comprises Parnell, Newmarket, Remuera, Epsom, and Mt Eden, and has been a key strategic seat in the past, allowing Act to hold seats in Parliament without meeting the 5% party vote threshold.

Since 2011’s infamous cup of tea incident, the voters of Epsom have been subtly sent a message: use your electorate vote for David Seymour and your party vote for National.

But now, with National’s Paul Goldsmith at risk of losing his place in Parliament on current polling and Act safely above 5% for multiple elections, the deal is off, and Goldsmith is actively campaigning for the candidate vote in the seat.

He’s spreading the “two-ticks blue” message wherever he goes.

Campaigning with Luxon in Newmarket earlier in October, he told reporters that Epsom voters were getting that message.

“I’d love to win the seat. It would be a great honour. All of us up and down the country are campaigning for the party vote and for the local seat that we’re in,” Goldsmith said.

“David Seymour is a good fellow. I’ve worked with him in the Cabinet, and we’ve done a good job together, but I think it’s time that Epsom people had a treat and had something different, and I think I could create some great excitement here.”

Farrar said Seymour has proven himself a strong local MP.

“I don’t think it’s even about how hard Paul Goldsmith campaigns and when he starts campaigning, I think Seymour’s now been the MP there for four [terms] and has done enough that people aren’t going to throw him out, regardless of the National campaign.”

Swanson, who once worked as an apolitical public servant in Goldsmith’s ministerial office, said despite National’s high party vote share in Epsom (clocking in at 51% in 2023), it’s possibly too late for a switch up in strategy in the seat.

“To be changing that within six weeks before an election ... that is a really hard message to get across after it’s been almost trained into people in that electorate.”

The rural swing seat of Wairarapa has flipped between National and Labour many times over the years, and includes the southern portion of Hawke’s Bay as well as the towns of Carterton, Featherston, Greytown, Martinborough, and Eketāhuna.

In 1999, it elected the world’s first transgender MP, Georgina Beyer for Labour, who beat then-National candidate Paul Henry, now running for Act.

Former New Zealand First deputy leader Ron Mark has announced a return to politics, but with a low list ranking of 16th, will probably need to win the seat to secure his comeback.

Mark has a high profile in the area, having served two stints as mayor of Carterton, but Farrar believes a comeback is unlikely against National’s Mike Butterick and Labour’s Kieran McAnulty.

“I think his candidacy will take mainly off Butterick and that would make it more easy for McAnulty,” Farrar said.

McAnulty won the seat in Labour’s red wave of 2020, but lost it by 2816 votes to Masterton sheep and beef farmer Butterick in 2023.

Farrar said the seat could prove very consequential for the Labour Party if McAnulty were to win.

He has previously been floated as a potential future Labour Party leader, and Farrar said if Labour lose the election, but McAnulty wins Wairarapa that would “certainly help his electability” as a successor.

Kāpiti is shaping up to be a closely fought contest, with two rising stars from each major party vying for the support of locals in the quiet and typically older population.

It is a new electorate, made up of parts of the now-abolished Mana and Ōtaki seats, and includes North Porirua and the Kāpiti Coast.

National’s incumbent Ōtaki MP Tim Costley is running for re-election against 26-year-old Kāpiti Coast District councillor Sophie Handford.

Costley has built a profile this term on local and national issues, including prosecuting Fire and Emergency NZ fleet issues, something Swanson and Farrar believe will help his chances.

Swanson said the inclusion of affluent suburbs like Whitby will work in Costley’s favour, but notes Handford has “quite a profile”, having been elected to the council for three terms now, as well as maintaining solid green credentials as a youth climate campaigner.

Perhaps the most consequential electorate race in the country, the Hutt South contest has the potential to put National’s high-profile frontbencher Chris Bishop out of Parliament altogether.

If he fails to hold the seat, he is unlikely to be elected as a list MP because National is expected to win more electorate seats than its party vote share – meaning it gets no list MPs.

Both Bishop and Ginny Andersen have held the traditional Labour seat, with Bishop the incumbent, swept in on National’s 2023 blue wave.

Bishop conceded in July that he considered himself “highly unlikely” to win his seat again, but has since softened his stance.

An earlier poll had Andersen ahead of Bishop in the race, 42% to 30%, but Bishop dismissed the polling on social media as “a junk robo-poll done by a former Labour hack”.

It was commissioned by Victor Consulting, a company founded by former Labour staffer Clint Smith.

Last election, only 26 votes were the difference, as incumbent Labour MP Rachel Boyack held the seat against a challenge from National’s Blair Cameron.

A recount was called confirming Boyack’s victory, in the seat that has swung throughout its history.

Despite Boyack’s win, National performed better in the party vote.

The seat was held for more than two decades by National’s Nick Smith, now the city’s mayor.

Cameron is again vying to win the electorate back for National.

Farrar said Cameron is highly regarded and is considered to be the “young future of the party”, noting Cameron has MCed previous National Party conferences.

Swanson believes the results in Nelson will again be close, although not to the same extent as in 2023.

New Zealand’s geographically largest general electorate seat, West Coast Tasman stretches along nearly the length of the South Island’s west coast.

The seat has flipped between National and Labour historically, with Labour’s Damien O’Connor holding it for most of its existence since 1996.

National’s Maureen Pugh won it from O’Connor in 2023, but neither is contesting it again this election, with Pugh retiring from politics and O’Connor having moved to Dunedin.

That leaves the race wide open.

National has selected the high-profile former Federated Farmers president and dairy farmer Katie Milne, while Labour is running teacher Rory Paterson.

Paterson is based in North Canterbury, but was born in Greymouth, and has been in the electorate for the campaign.

Also running is former Buller District Mayor Jamie Cleine, ranked 14 on the party’s list.

Swanson said with no incumbents, the race is an “open field”, but both he and Farrar stress the electorate’s West Coast and Tasman areas are distinct populations.

“Cleine might do very well in those mining towns, the sort of farming, West Coast kind of bits [but] I’m not sure if he’ll do okay in the Tasman part of the electorate.”

Made up of Christchurch’s southwestern suburbs of Addington, Spreydon, Hillmorton, Sockburn, Hornby, and Broomfield, the Wigram electorate has a left-leaning history.

It was held by Jim Anderton from 1996 until 2011 under the Alliance and later Progressive Party.

When Anderton retired, he picked his successor, Labour’s Megan Woods, who went on to win the seat in every election since.

But boundary changes are thought to have changed the political make-up of Wigram.

The redrawn electorate has lost the safe red suburbs of Addington and Spreydon and gained blue-leaning rural satellite towns Prebbleton and Templeton from Selwyn.

Farrar said party vote polling data suggested National would win the seat if the 2023 result was re-run under the boundary changes, but based on current trends, Labour would retain it.

Woods has announced she is not seeking re-election in the seat, so the party is running a newcomer, tech worker Dominik Yanzick.

He is up against National’s Tracy Summerfield, a chartered accountant and registered teacher, who climbed close to Woods’ result in the 2023 election.

Ethan Manera is a Wellington-based journalist covering Wellington issues, local politics and business in the capital. He can be emailed at ethan.manera@nzme.co.nz.

Katie Bradford is a Senior Correspondent at the Herald. She has been a broadcast journalist for over 20 years and was based in the press gallery for 10 years. She specialises in politics, business and Auckland issues.