Trump’s immigration crackdown is cutting jobs for US-born workers, study finds
President Donald Trump’s immigration raids and checkpoints are weighing on the labour market, leading to fewer jobs for US-born men as well as undocumented immigrants.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, increased immigration arrests led to 4%-5% lower employment of undocumented immigrants, especially among men, who made up 90% of arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
But the study also found that, for every six undocumented male workers who leave their jobs, a US-born male worker with a high school degree or less loses a job as well.
The study is the first of its kind analysing the labour market impacts of heightened immigration enforcement last year.
The Trump administration has touted its efforts to deport undocumented workers as a way to help Americans in the labour market. But the research shows that deportations are having a chilling effect.
Economist Chloe East, a co-author of the paper, said: “We are showing, using the best available real-time data on the second Trump administration, that heightened ICE activity has been really harmful for the labour market, not only for immigrant workers who remain in the US but also for US-born workers.”
Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman, said “there is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labour force, and President Trump’s agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this administration’s commitment to capitalising on that untapped potential while delivering on our mandate to enforce our immigration laws”.
The paper’s findings clash with messaging from the Trump administration, which has stated over the past year that American workers benefited from the immigration crackdown. A White House news release trumpeted this year that “Mass deportations = more jobs”, adding that millions of US-born workers had joined the labour force during the second Trump administration as immigrants shed jobs - findings repeatedly disputed by economists.
The latest research validates prior research showing that immigration enforcement hurts US-born workers. They found that job losses for US-born workers were concentrated in industries that relied heavily on undocumented men - including agriculture, construction and manufacturing.
A 2024 study on the construction industry showed that deporting immigrants working in lower-skilled positions, such as roofers and labourers, could lead to the disappearance of work for native-born construction workers, especially those in higher-skilled jobs, such as electricians and plumbers.
East said: “Regardless of whether we’re talking about mass deportations in the 1930s, the 2010s or 2025, the results are really similar, which is that mass deportations are not helpful for the labour market overall and do not create more job opportunities for US-born workers.”
- The Washington Post
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