Trump’s bluster had little effect on Iran’s journey to the negotiating table
Since United States President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran in April, he has sought to force the country to accept his terms for a peace deal with a mixture of threats, bravado and limited military operations.
But the contours of a deal emerging this week to end the war reflects how Trump’s pressure campaign does not appear to have decisively shifted Iran’s stance - especially on its nuclear programme.
The impending deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway for oil and gas, which Iran has blockaded since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began the war in late February. But it may delay big decisions on other thorny issues until later.
The Strait of Hormuz was already supposed to be open at this point. Free passage had been Trump’s condition for pausing the war in April.
US officials hoped that if ships again flowed freely, surging fuel prices would fall, US domestic rancour over the war would calm down and Iran would have less leverage in the talks.
But Iranian forces have maintained a tight grip on the strait, and whatever the US tried could not loosen it.
On April 13, the US military began a naval blockade of Iranian ports, which is still in force. US troops have redirected at least 100 ships as part of the cordon on Iran’s cities, the military said this week.
The following month, Trump announced what he called Project Freedom. The idea was for US forces to protect ships trapped by the months-long Iranian blockade to allow them to safely exit the strait. Two vessels managed to get out under the initiative.
Just a day later, Trump suspended the effort. Calls by the Trump Administration for support from European allies in policing the strait went nowhere.
Trump repeatedly threatened Iran with further attacks but did not follow through.
The war with Iran has proved unpopular with the American public, including among Republicans. It drove up the prices of oil and gas and squeezed Washington’s Arab allies, which have borne the brunt of Iran’s retaliatory attacks.
In late April, as another of Trump’s deadlines for Iran to agree to US terms was set to expire, he decided to extend the ceasefire until “discussions are concluded, one way or the other”.
Trump kept up his threats, mostly on his Truth Social account, ranging from memes to statements that “the Clock is Ticking” for Iran.
Last week, Trump said he was delaying another previously unannounced military offensive against Iran after requests from Gulf Arab leaders, given that “serious negotiations” were taking place.
Iran experts say the country’s leadership has emerged emboldened from the war, believing that the country had weathered an attempt to topple the Islamic Republic.
The leadership views time as on its side, analysts say, in part given their ability to rattle global energy prices.
Written by: Aaron Boxerman
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