Putin preparing to escalate war against Ukraine, Western intelligence officials say
Western intelligence officials believe the Russian leader is laying the ground for a “stealth mobilisation” after elections this weekend, in which thousands of Russians could be drafted.
“What we are seeing is administrative preparations to make it possible to do it, if that was the decision,” one intelligence source told the Telegraph.
European leaders, meanwhile, have warned that the Kremlin’s hybrid war against the West is likely to intensify.
Intelligence sources say Putin has been backed into a corner, with his forces having suffered 1.5 million casualties, including 500,000 fatalities, in Ukraine, and his invasion effectively at a stalemate.
But he is believed to have decided to escalate rather than enter meaningful peace talks mediated by Donald Trump.
European security fears were heightened on Friday amid reports the US is considering a major withdrawal of troops from Europe. The Pentagon is thought to be weighing up removing between 25,000 and 40,000 soldiers, while pulling military aircraft, ships and weapons away from the Continent.
The US denied the reports, but Nato’s most senior commander held talks with Pentagon chiefs later in the day about US troop posture, the alliance said.
Privately, European defence and security officials say they fear that Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is a precursor to a more concerted campaign of increasingly overt action against Nato territory, which could follow the elections.
If Putin does order a mobilisation, they say, its purpose could as easily be focused on Europe as Ukraine, allowing him to deploy forces at new bases along Russia’s western frontier with Nato.
On Friday, Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, ordered his officials to devise a plan to protect the nation’s critical infrastructure and defence industries from potential sabotage.
Poland’s Donald Tusk has warned Russia is planning missile strikes on countries supporting Ukraine, adding that Moscow plans to describe the incidents as “accidental” to test the Nato alliance.
Potential call-up for 300,000
Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, previously said his intelligence services believed Moscow was planning to call up an additional 300,000 troops.
Western intelligence officials questioned whether Russia has the equipment to send 300,000 new recruits into the battlefield, saying a “very big public mass mobilisation feels unlikely”.
However, one intelligence source said: “We see lots of what we call ‘stealth’ mobilisation and extra efforts to drive up contract recruitment”, including forcing people awaiting trial to sign up, along with those behind on their debts or falling behind at university.
There are also concerns among officials inside the Kremlin that a mass mobilisation may be on the cards, Bloomberg reported on Friday. It also cited Russian documents showing activity at recruitment centres and evidence some Russians are trying to move money and assets abroad to avoid a military draft.
Speaking about the increasing threat posed by Russia to Europe, Macron said: “In recent weeks, the Russian hybrid threat against Europeans and against France has intensified.
“The intent is to intimidate us and break our effort to support Ukraine. The result will be the exact opposite. We are not intimidated because we know that our security today and tomorrow is at stake in Ukraine.”
Moscow has warned that British facilities in Ukraine will be considered “legitimate targets” if they are used to support long-range strikes against Russia.
The Russian foreign ministry summoned Danae Dholakia, the UK’s deputy head of mission in Moscow, to complain about UK support for Ukraine in the war triggered by Putin’s invasion four years ago.
The senior diplomat was warned that Russia could take “retaliatory measures” in response, echoing similar sabre-rattling from the Kremlin.
A British Foreign Office spokesman described the summons as “yet another attempt to deflect attention from Russia’s barbaric full-scale invasion of Ukraine and discredit the UK on the world stage”.
Britain this month announced it would commit £100 million ($116.6m) to boost Ukraine’s air-defence capabilities this winter, including with Patriot missiles.
‘Predatory madness’
On Friday, Macron summoned French leaders to a three-hour meeting with intelligence chiefs, which reportedly left some politicians shaken.
“I’ve just emerged from nearly three hours of briefing and discussions with the President of the Republic and the intelligence and security services,” Guillaume Lacroix, the president of the Radical Party of the Left, wrote on X.
“At the age of 50, I have rarely felt such vertigo. Vertigo at the gravity of the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine, at the predatory madness driving the world toward chaos.”
He said France was facing a “grave” situation, adding: “Our democracy, our country must already face up to it today and will have to stand firm tomorrow.”
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