More than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European nations worry Moscow could escalate the conflict there and beyond, targeting Kyiv’s supporters.
Western leaders have warned of a surge in Russian covert operations across Europe, amid concerns such activities could eventually cause casualties.
At the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s party won a record supermajority in Kremlin-choreographed parliamentary elections, after he cast the vote as a show of support for the war.
Some analysts believe the Kremlin chief may be laying the groundwork for further escalation, including another mobilisation drive.
Russia has not eased its maximalist demands in Ukraine, with the Kremlin still seeking full control of the eastern Donetsk region.
But widespread drone use at the front has made large-scale troop movements almost impossible, preventing either side from gaining a clear advantage.
Russian forces are losing momentum in eastern Ukraine, Western officials say.
In April and May, Russia’s military lost more ground than it captured, according to an AFP analysis of data from the United States-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russia’s advance gained pace in August but remained far slower than in previous years.
For months, both sides have stepped up long-range strikes on civilian and industrial targets, including energy, transport and port infrastructure, as well as ships in the Black Sea.
Russian and Ukrainian military losses remain among the war’s closest guarded secrets. France’s armed forces chief Fabien Mandon estimated in August that between 30,000 and 35,000 Russians are killed or wounded in combat every month.
Moscow has sought to bolster its ranks through generous enlistment bonuses for volunteers, the recruitment of fighters from Africa and Latin America, and the deployment of an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 North Korean troops behind the front lines in Russia.
But there are more casualties than there are new recruits and Putin has so far ruled out a repeat of the mobilisation that prompted an exodus of Russian men in September 2022.
Perhaps his increased majority in the recent election might change Putin’s mind.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s mixed signals on Russia have complicated Europe’s push for peace.
This month, Trump sent envoys to Moscow and Kyiv hoping to revive long-stalled peace talks. He has signed a bill authorising sweeping new sanctions designed to pressure Russia but has also chastised Ukraine for hitting Russian oil refineries.
Trump has also threatened to pull US troops out of Europe, while just recently increasing the US military presence in Poland.
Any withdrawal of US troops should be “as balanced as possible”, Sweden’s top military commander Michael Claesson said, to avoid “vulnerabilities that could – and would more likely – more or less be exploited from a Russian perspective”.
Western officials believe Russia is increasing clandestine operations across Europe.
The attacks have fallen below the threshold of open warfare but have included drone flights near sensitive sites, airspace violations, cyberattacks and acts of sabotage. They are often hard to trace back to Russia, which has repeatedly denied involvement.
Berlin this month blamed Moscow after explosive-laden drones were discovered at Leipzig Airport in August. Had they detonated, the attack would likely have caused human casualties.
Europeans do not rule out Russia testing the West’s willingness to act through a military operation against a Nato country, whether an airstrike or another kind of limited attack.
Citing intelligence assessments, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned last week that Moscow’s plans included “strikes using drones and missiles on countries supporting Ukraine”.
The aim, he said, was to weaken Nato’s unity and to convince members “that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical”.
Article 5 triggers automatic assistance by Nato countries when a member is attacked. Nato says that this assistance may or may not involve the use of armed force.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Tusk’s remarks were “well-founded and well-documented”.
A European security source said such Russian plans existed, but spy agencies had not yet detected any intention to turn them into a reality.
- AFP