2026 population doomsday: What a 1960 scientific paper got right and wrong
A scientific paper published in the journal Science in 1960 predicted humanity would reach a population-driven “doomsday” next month.
The forecast date was November 13, 2026, which also happens to fall on a Friday.
The prediction was made by Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and colleagues at the University of Illinois.
Analysing population estimates spanning two millennia, the researchers concluded global population growth was accelerating so rapidly that it would approach a mathematical limit in late 2026, the Independent reported.
While many population theorists at the time feared food shortages would trigger mass famine, the researchers argued humanity’s downfall would come from overcrowding rather than starvation.
“At this date human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown in the last two millennia,” the paper said.
“Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve. They will be squeezed to death.”
However, experts have assured the media that overpopulation is not about to suffocate humanity in the next four weeks.
According to Popular Science, the paper’s prediction assumed larger populations would improve humanity’s ability to co-operate and innovate, creating an ever-faster cycle of population growth.
Modern demographic experts say the 1960 researchers correctly identified historical trends but wrongly assumed those trends would continue indefinitely.
Joel Cohen, a mathematical biologist at Rockefeller University and Columbia University, told Popular Science that the authors accurately described population growth up to that point but failed to recognise growth rates were already nearing their peak.
“He got the picture right just as that picture ceased to be right,” Cohen said.
Global population growth began slowing in the second half of the 20th century as child mortality declined, life expectancy increased and birth rates fell.
Experts told Popular Science that improvements in sanitation, nutrition, healthcare and access to contraception fundamentally changed demographic patterns.
Today, concerns have shifted to declining fertility rates in many countries. More than half of the world’s nations are now below replacement-level fertility (2.1 children), according to United Nations figures.
The United Nations projects the global population will peak at about 10.3 billion people in the 2080s before beginning a gradual decline, not the “infinite” growth envisioned in the 1960 study.
The paper emerged during the Cold War, when fears of resource scarcity and civilisation-ending crises were widespread, according to the Independent.
Despite the approaching anniversary of von Foerster’s prediction, demographers said there is little reason to fear an impending population-driven apocalypse.
“I’m sure not acting as if I’m too concerned about it,” Cohen told Popular Science. “I’m still paying my bills. I’m still paying my taxes.”