Nations Championship power rankings: Boks clear front-runners, All Blacks peaking at right time again

A win against Italy and Fiji’s general malaise mean that Eddie Jones’s Japan are, perhaps, higher in this list than many might have predicted at the end of June. Takuro Matsunaga looks to be maturing at first five-eighths – and was one of the stars in the victory over the Azzurri – while it remains heartwarming to still see Michael Leitch, the hero of Japan’s 2015 and 2019 World Cup campaigns, charging around at the ripe old age of 37. Their autumn schedule is by no means easy but the Cherry Blossoms will be targeting that match in Cardiff, after running Wales so close last November. Incidentally, no matter how often the Nations Championship tries to tell us, Japan will never be in the Southern Hemisphere!

There are undoubted signs of improvement for Wales and it should not be forgotten that this year they won back-to-back tests for the first time since the 2023 World Cup. Even if the direction of travel is slow it is, at least, in a forward motion. A 43-0 drubbing to South Africa does not look like a positive on the surface but when compared to 73-0, the score in Cardiff last November, it is not all doom and gloom. Steve Tandy seems to have instilled more confidence and self-belief in his troops; relatively speaking, of course, but not long ago, there was none.

A disappointing July for Argentina – the, erm, darlings of world sport – but there are caveats. One win from three home matches against Scotland, Wales and England would not have been on Felipe Contepomi’s menu but Los Pumas were missing some world-class players, had to come together at short notice after an incredibly long season and in another life, the England test would have finished a draw with a penalty try given against Noah Caluori for a high tackle. But results are results, Argentina won just one of their tests – against Wales – and really, a side with their quality, at home, should be aiming for higher.

Places four to seven will be the most controversial of these rankings but the one disclaimer is that it is incredibly tight in the Nations Championship’s mid-table. The Wallabies are seventh by dint of only winning one match but they pushed Ireland incredibly close, with only a Ben Donaldson last-play penalty the difference between the sides. Australia always have players and athletes to trouble any side, with a handful touching World XV status, openside Fraser McReight among them. It is depth they struggle with – they do not bat deep, to borrow cricket parlance – and so the next year or so, before their own World Cup, will be fascinating. The lack of consistency in the halfbacks remains an issue, too.

Unfair, given their victory in Argentina? Perhaps, but places four to six on this list were the tightest of any. Scotland’s victory over Los Pumas was undoubtedly the highlight of their July – and it was not entirely expected, either – but in subsequent fixtures, Gregor Townsend’s men were beaten, in the end fairly comfortably, by a South African B team, and then a Scotland B team defeated Fiji at Murrayfield. While that latter victory deserves credit, it is tough to know how much to read into it, except for Townsend admirably trying to build depth. Had Scotland done the business against South Africa, they would have been at least fourth, without question.

Again, Irish fans might think this unfair, but Andy Farrell’s side came within a kick of losing to Australia, a much-changed side defeated Japan but hardly convincingly, and then the first-choice side were comfortably beaten against New Zealand. And Ireland looked tired and, at times, a little rudderless in that loss at Eden Park. Still, the fact remains that, like England, it is two wins from three, but Farrell potentially has more on his plate before the autumn – and beyond. South Africa are due in Dublin – last year, there was a scrummaging massacre in that fixture – and there is no better game for Ireland to prove that they are on the right path to the World Cup.

As ever, judging England is never straightforward. On the face of it, two wins from three amounts to a decent July but really, that was the bare minimum, predictable outcome. Losing a one-off test to the full-strength World Cup champions at high altitude is hardly a reason for a full-scale reset, but fans have grown frustrated with the same elements hindering England’s game, discipline being the main one. Dispatching Fiji with aplomb and winning in Argentina, even in controversial circumstances, are not to be sniffed at and both matches showed improvements, off the back of the France defeat, in attack. Steve Borthwick will be happy, all things considered, at where his side sit but England must now push on in the remainder of the Nations Championship and into next year’s Six Nations. The two July wins have to be the genesis of something greater, not the zenith.

Kiwis might feel a bit hard done by with third place after three straight victories but it is my firm belief that France came out better from that pulsating test in Christchurch. Still, to redress the balance, the All Blacks certainly look like a side on the up under Dave Rennie. If France can do them a favour by defeating South Africa in Paris in the autumn, then New Zealand may still make the inaugural Nations Championship final. Cam Roigard has developed into one of the game’s premier halfbacks, Quinn Tupaea is going from strength to strength at centre and inside and outside him are some of the world’s best. And, up front, Ardie Savea walks into any World XV, while there are few more rounded looseheads in the world game than Ethan de Groot. In truth, the victory over Ireland almost became a thrashing; the All Blacks might be peaking at the right time once again.

In terms of pure results, it has become tough to judge France, given that Les Bleus embarked on this summer’s campaign without a handful of their best players (mainly from Toulouse). Yet France still won two of their three matches pretty comfortably (against Australia and Japan) but fell to New Zealand in a tight contest which, given those unavailable – Julien Marchand, Thibaud Flament, Charles Ollivon, François Cros, Antoine Dupont, Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Thomas Ramos among them – should be seen as an achievement of sorts. Of course, all eyes will be on their hosting of the Springboks in November, which is developing into the fixture of our times. To compete – and at the World Cup next year – France will need to find some scrummaging props, or take the radical step of selecting both Emmanuel Meafou and Mickaël Guillard in the second row to lock out, with three lineout jumping back-rowers.

The least controversial of the lot. Three wins from three, while blooding new players and fully rotating the squad – all without, arguably, their best player in Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu. The form of the Springboks looks ominous with the next World Cup just over a year away with almost their entire starting XV in the conversation for the greatest in the world in their respective positions. Can anyone stop them? There are a handful who might be able to catch them on an off day, certainly, but few sides in the world are able to match South Africa for consistency and squad depth. Rassie Erasmus’s side are clear favourites for the inaugural Nations Championship and, at this stage, the World Cup, too. And, who knows, many more tournaments to come.