All Blacks v Springboks: Where the first test will be won and lost

Since the 2023 World Cup, South Africa boast the top four props with the highest percentage of scrum penalties on their side.

Three of those, Wilco Louw (23.6% scrum penalties), Gerhard Steenekamp (26%) and Jan-Hendrik Wessels (24.1%), feature against the All Blacks this weekend. The other is Ox Nche, widely regarded as the world’s strongest scrummager.

While the All Blacks have selected their first-choice front-row to counter the Boks’ vaunted scrum, Patrick Tuipulotu’s absence could depower their stability at this platform.

The other telling pointer to where the Boks generate momentum is that France and South Africa were the only teams from the three Nations Championship tests in July to average four or more metres per carry.

The All Blacks ranked eighth in the same window with an average of 3.17m per carry. In this elite arena, every metre matters.

Those stats speak to the size of the Boks’ forward pack, the need to get off the line and stop their ability to wind up, and for the All Blacks to improve their ball carrying if they are to gain enough lightning-quick ball.

The contrasts don’t end there, either.

In July, the All Blacks ranked third behind France and Ireland for average attacking ruck speed with 2.95 seconds. The Springboks were by far the slowest of the 12 nations with 4.23s.

Discipline:

Will the officials bow to the sustained public pressure the Springboks coaching staff have applied this week?

Let’s hope not. The players, the spectacle, should determine this series. The less attention on the officials, the better.

Erasmus began test week by wheeling out former test referee-turned Springboks laws manager Jaco Peyper to try to dispel Dave Rennie’s frustrations that the South African franchise teams intentionally slowed their three tour matches – noting the Sharks took 50 seconds to form one lineout.

Following Peyper’s orchestrated press appearance, Springboks assistant Felix Jones had a proper whinge about the All Blacks’ breakdown cleanout methods and maul defence, citing examples from the tour matches.

Under the new World Rugby protocol, test coaches can only meet the referee before the game if both agree they need to. Coaches can also submit a maximum of six clips for the match day officials to consider.

Erasmus and Rennie did not meet first test referee Matthew Carley this week but that hasn’t stopped the overt pressure Boks are exerting on the officials.

“We sent in clips of concerns we’ve got,” Rennie said. “I’m sure they’ve done the same thing. I’m not sure why they’re trying to air that stuff in the media. I’ve got no plans to share any of the clips we’ve sent in.

“Felix was pointing out a handful of things. We’ve learnt. Our discipline was much better last weekend and we know that’s going to be important against the Springboks.”

The All Blacks know they must be squeaky clean this weekend if they are to break the Boks’ 12-test unbeaten run since their last loss at Eden Park.

Carley is not shy of issuing cards. He dished out three yellow cards in the last All Blacks test in South Africa two years ago – and three more in their humbling loss to the Boks at Twickenham, where former captain Scott Barrett copped two, before the 2023 World Cup.

Cam Roigard factor:

A trump card for the All Blacks.

While he comes in cold, having yet to feature on this tour due to a calf complaint, the Boks are yet to face Roigard in a starting capacity.

Roigard’s only previous appearance against the Boks was off the bench when he scored a brilliant solo try in their blowout loss in London in 2023 – the same match Barrett received two cards.

Injury prevented Roigard from playing the Boks in the last two years. His size, booming boot, particularly at altitude, and running threat will challenge the big Boks forwards as fatigue sets in.

Roigard’s ability to cope with ruck pressure and shake off defenders is another asset as the Boks, through Malcolm Marx, highly rated 23-year-old tyro Paul de Villiers and world-class No 8 Jasper Weise, will constantly pressure the breakdown.

Lineout risk and reward:

Fabian Holland’s selection projects the All Blacks’ intent to target the lineout.

Boks hooker Marx is one of the world’s best breakdown and carrying exponents but his throwing can be rattled at times.

Holland’s height will be utilised in this area alongside three locks in the All Blacks starting team.

No lock on the bench, in favour of injecting dynamic loose forwards Peter Lakai and Anton Segner and committing to speed, tasks two of Holland, Josh Lord and Tupou Vaa’i with digging deep into the hurt locker to play 80 minutes on the thin-air high veldt.

Vaa’i, barring injury, will be one of those when he switches from blindside to lock in the second half.

“The more locks you can get on the field the better the lineout is. That’s one area we could potentially target this weekend,” Vaa’i said. “The Boks are a massive set piece team. They pride their game on that so it’s an area we can challenge.

“Blindside was definitely not on my bingo card this year. When you look towards the World Cup next year it’s always handy to play another position. It brings a bit more height in the lineout. I enjoy it. There’s some different roles in attack and defence but I’m juggling it well.

“There’s more running. You hang on the edge more and not in the thick of things which I pride myself on. It’s finding that balance between the two. That’s what I’ve been working on the last couple of weeks.

“Defensively, when you’re coming up against the speedy Springboks backs, it’s definitely going to be challenging.”

Bombs away:

How the All Blacks handle the aerial onslaught could define this first test.

Vulnerabilities in this area were consistently exposed last year to leave the All Blacks backfield constantly scrambling.

While improvements are evident this season, thanks largely to a tactical shift Will Jordan outlines, defusing the high ball with the added altitude hang time is another challenge entirely.

“The adjustment we’ve made around the guys retreating to catch it has been the biggest difference,” Jordan said. “Coming forward with the collision in the air is a bit of a challenge so we’ve done that reasonably well over the first six games of the year. That will be a step up this weekend with the way the Springboks go hard in that area. It’s an area we have to defuse but I feel like we’ve got a decent plan heading in.”

Much has been made of South Africa’s kicking game but through Roigard, Ruben Love, Jordie Barrett and Damian McKenzie, the All Blacks will try to strike the balance between their running threats and turning the Boks around.

More mind games, or nerves, from Rassie?

Rennie acknowledged the need to claim first blood to turn up the heat on the Boks at home.

Erasmus, though, perhaps in a move to divert pressure, is adamant the third of four tests at the 94,000 capacity Soweto stadium will determine this series.

“We will definitely try our utmost to win the first test match. We’ve learned from the British and Irish Lions series, from World Cup pool matches, that a series is only going to be determined in game three,” Erasmus said.

“We are thinking of keeping guys fresh for round three which will be the most important match. There will be another six, seven injuries in each camp, so managing game time is very important.”

Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.

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