All Blacks v Springboks: Forward changes expected for third test

Elements of their game, particularly on attack where they have scored nine tries to four across the two tests and consistently stressed the Springboks on the edge, are working well – even if the clinical finishing eluded them too often in Cape Town.

The All Blacks have also defused the notorious bomb squad to definitively win the last quarters of both tests.

The scrum has fluctuated. The lineout needs urgent attention after Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit applied relentless pressure in the second test. Sourcing a high-ball solution would transform this series overnight. And the breakdown is another pressing concern, with the All Blacks unable to generate their desired ruck speed.

After two brutal battles, physical and mental loads must be assessed too. Changes are certain for the third test at FNB Stadium in the heart of Soweto, where 94,000 fans will flock this weekend for a match that could be billed as the genuine decider given the fourth, money-spinning final match in Baltimore drastically alters the context.

Just as the Boks will lean on their depth, so too must the All Blacks have faith in theirs.

This tour, having selected 44 players for eight matches, has allowed Dave Rennie to explore options and assess his wider talent pool.

Rennie has been open with expectations that he will use at least 30 players across the four-test series. Now is the junction to pull that lever in some positions as the risk of hitting the wall mounts each week.

With everything at stake, the All Blacks are certainly thankful to banish the last of their midweek matches to allow their sole focus to zero in on improvements for the Boks.

“The next couple of days we’ll need to get the boys freshened up and how we manage this week will be important,” Ryan noted.

“We’ve got to make sure their battery is full at the end of the week. We don’t need to concentrate on getting any fitter or stronger at this stage of the tour; we’ve just got to keep them mentally sharp and physically ready.

“It’s a balance of getting the edge and a good physical training at the back end of the week.”

While changes in the backline appear less likely, rotation in the forward pack is a growing necessity.

Ethan de Groot and Josh Lord are expected to be cleared from their mandatory concussion stand-downs, although the former must recover from a knee ligament issue to prove his fitness.

Ryan nominated openside Luke Jacobson as one player who could be spelled.

Fabian Holland and Tupou Vaa’i, both of whom have delivered 80-minute shifts in the first two tests, are among others who will need to be monitored for fatigue.

The notable impact from the bench, where Asafo Aumua and Peter Lakai lead the charge, particularly with ball in hand, enhances their respective cases to start.

Aumua’s lineout throwing remains a concern but his dynamic and destructive work elsewhere is compelling.

“We’ll have a look at some players who have played two 80s in a row. There could be an opportunity to change and get some fresh legs on,” Ryan said.

“Luke Jacobson had a bit of flu last night and Peter Lakai came on and was exceptional. All those sorts of things they add to how you can shift momentum and be fresh.

“This tour has brought competition in this squad right across the park. It’s pretty exciting. That’s the way you want it. There’s been good trainings that have had a bit of edge.

“The selectors have a tough job this week, which is good.”

Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.

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