All Blacks third test changes: Forward pack tipped for reshuffle after Cape Town loss
Notable adjustments rather than mass changes could be the approach as the All Blacks seek to strike back to regain control of the greatest rivalry series in South Africa.
With the backline attack functioning well to frequently create space on the edges, the focus largely falls on the All Blacks forward pack for the third test at Soweto.
Ethan de Groot and Josh Lord, both of whom were unavailable following head knocks for the second test defeat in Cape Town, are expected to come back into the frame.
Of the two, Highlanders prop de Groot appears more doubtful as he is carrying a knee ligament issue.
Lord’s 2.03m frame may be welcomed back to start in the second row alongside the 2.04m Fabian Holland in a bid to address the All Blacks lineout that buckled under consistent heat from Boks lock Eben Etzebeth and loose forward Pieter-Steph Du Toit last week.
Pairing Lord and Holland together could weaken the scrum platform but the All Blacks have favoured using Tupou Vaa’i from blindside flanker when their locking stocks are all fit.
All Blacks coach Dave Rennie has been open with his intent to utilise at least 30 players through the four tests against the Boks to counter fatigue. The midway stage is, therefore, the time to welcome fresh legs in some areas.
Injecting more ball-carrying punch from their forward pack is likely to be a priority for the All Blacks, which promotes Peter Lakai and Asafo Aumua as potential big movers this week.
The All Blacks dominated defenders beaten and post-contact metres in last week’s loss – the first of Rennie’s tenure – but most of those were achieved by the backline out wide.
Bending and breaking the Boks defensive green wall in the middle of the park has proven difficult. The dynamic Lakai is one of the best ball carriers in New Zealand rugby and his presence could also help snaffle breakdown turnovers which have been at a premium.
All Blacks scrum coach Jason Ryan noted Luke Jacobson battled the flu last week and after two big bruising tests, his workload could be managed, with Lakai stepping in to start.
Aumua has been among the All Blacks’ best performers in South Africa.
While his lineout throwing remains a concern, the Hurricanes hooker is a destructive force with ball in hand. He’s led the telling impact off the bench that helped propel the All Blacks to final-quarter surges in both tests in South Africa.
Harnessing Aumua’s punch from the outset could address the All Blacks’ struggles to generate quick, clean ruck ball in Cape Town. Launching Aumua’s power into the collisions would require multiple Boks defenders to bring him down.
Indeed, a head-to-head battle between world-class Boks hooker Malcolm Marx and Aumua is an enticing prospect.
Starting Aumua would also allow the All Blacks to spell centurion Codie Taylor with Samisoni Taukei’aho potentially providing impact from the bench.
With the series on the line, Rennie appears unlikely to drastically alter the backline but there could be further tweaks to the bench.
Rennie could return to his first test preference to select two loose forwards on the bench and switch Vaa’i to lock later in the match. That would suit the All Blacks’ desire to lift the pace and tempo in the final quarter.
Josh Moorby wasn’t used last week after losing his starting spot on the left wing to Leroy Carter. Rieko Ioane or Emoni Narawa could inject more impact.
Ethan Blackadder is another All Black to be hit with the flu this week, which could pave the way for Jacobson and Wallace Sititi to be included on the bench.
Potential All Blacks team:
1. Ethan de Groot, 2. Asafo Aumua, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 4. Josh Lord, 5. Fabian Holland, 6. Tupou Vaa’i, 7. Peter Lakai, 8. Ardie Savea, 9. Cam Roigard, 10. Ruben Love, 11. Leroy Carter, 12. Jordie Barrett, 13. Quinn Tupaea, 14. Will Jordan, 15. Damian McKenzie.
Reserves: 16. Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17. George Bower, 18. Fletcher Newell, 19. Wallace Sititi, 20. Luke Jacobson, 21. Kyle Preston, 22. Anton Lienert-Brown, 23. Rieko Ioane.
Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.
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