All Blacks squad: Why Dave Rennie is unlikely to select new faces for Nations Championship tour – Gregor Paul
With one last mission in 2026 and 52 players having already seen action, it’s probable that other than Leicester Fainga’anuku, the All Blacks are not looking to inject any new faces into their Nations Championship squad.
The net has been cast far and wide already and presumably caught just about everyone it possibly could in a season that has so far seen the All Blacks play nine tests and four games.
The tour to South Africa was the opportunity to probe deep into the talent pool and hunt for a World Cup wild card, and while it’s not definitive – a hardline ruling – it would seem a low probability that the selectors will now haul a few promising players out of the NPC to see if they can handle themselves in Britain.
For a start, no one has really made their case and, while the NPC has been excellent value for fan entertainment, it’s not of a quality that players can realistically jump from there to the All Blacks without first being exposed to the better preparatory environment of Super Rugby.
And the window on exploration as it relates to personnel is closing because time has always been the one commodity emergency coach Dave Rennie has never had in his rescue mission. Appointed in March after Scott Robertson was deemed not to have the team on the right trajectory, Rennie was given 15 months to fix and reset an All Blacks team that was believed to be divided and disillusioned.
Rennie would, therefore, be a little remiss if he passed up the opportunity to use an eight-game tour of South Africa to blood some new talent, only to spin the selection wheel less than 10 months out from the World Cup.
The quest to find new players will never stop, but by and large, Rennie will feel he’s built enough depth in most positions to weather a few injuries and the emphasis on this coming tour will be to keep building key combinations, refine playing patterns and develop greater familiarity with the game plan.
So too will there be a desire to win the Nations Championship. The new tournament hasn’t had universal buy-in from all the top tier nations – some of whom remain sceptical about its value, purpose and inequitable travel burdens – but it’s got branding and a trophy and therefore, for the moment, credibility.
And to be blunt, the All Blacks need to win something other than the Bledisloe Cup. Partly that’s because they haven’t won anything of note since they collected the Rugby Championship in 2023 (and even that was truncated because of the World Cup) and to verify their renaissance under Rennie.
Whether it lasts beyond its inaugural year or not, the Nations Championship would be a nice piece of silverware for the All Blacks to collect and to remind the rugby world that South Africa don’t win everything.
The expanding injury toll may yet, of course, change the best-laid selection plans, but the underlying principle when it comes to selecting this last squad of the year will surely be to work with players already known to the coaches and familiar with the systems.
The one exception is Fainga’anuku, who broke his leg a week before the first squad of the year was named for the July tests and who has been flagged as a likely inclusion in the November tour party that is expected to contain 36 players.
Fainga’anuku could be named as an outside back, or as a loose forward – it probably doesn’t really matter, however, because he’ll likely play a little bit at both in Britain, albeit it is a stretch to imagine he’ll start a game at the latter.
Equally, it’s unlikely he’ll be considered a genuine option in the midfield, mostly because there will already be an oversubscription in that department, but also because he’s probably not a good enough defender in that role.
The All Blacks appear to have been using a U-shape defence where the widest players push up faster and it effectively puts a yet greater decision-making burden on whoever is playing centre.
The two more pertinent questions are whether he’s fit enough to make a meaningful contribution to what is a high tempo, aerobically demanding game plan.
Fainga’anuku is short of game time having only been able to make snatched appearances for Tasman since recovering. And unlike Scott Barrett, who was picked for the Bledisloe Cup after just two outings for Taranaki, Fainga’anuku doesn’t have the same conditioning base or the same proven ability to return to top-level action on limited minutes.
The second question is whether Fainga’anuku’s presence will pave the way for the All Blacks to experiment with a 6-2 bench split in Britain.
The All Blacks have been strongly wedded to the standard 5-3 split, but Rennie said a switch to 6-2 was considered in South Africa but, for whatever reason, it never materialised.
Fainga’anuku’s ability to play on the wing or at openside could tempt the All Blacks to experiment with a different bench configuration and at least see if it can become an option in their World Cup armoury.
The other significant selection decision that will need to be made is whether to take Richie Mo’unga, who is not expected to be fit until the final two tests.
If they decide to take Mo’unga, it would likely be at the expense of the newly capped Chay Fihaki, who is probably going to be in the 36 now Leroy Carter has been ruled out as he needs surgery on an injured ankle.
Possible All Blacks squad
Props: Ethan de Groot, Xavier Numia, George Bower, Fletcher Newell, Tyrel Lomax, Pasilio Tosi.
Hookers: Codie Taylor, Asafo Aumua, Samisoni Taukei’aho*
Locks: Scott Barrett, Fabian Holland, Josh Lord, Patrick Tuipulotu*, Sam Darry.
Loose forwards: Tupou Vaa’i, Peter Lakai, Wallace Sititi, Anton Segner, Ethan Blackadder, Shannon Frizell*.
Halfbacks: Cam Roigard, Kyle Preston, Cortez Ratima.
First five-eighths: Damian McKenzie, Josh Jacomb.
Midfielders: Jordie Barrett, Quinn Tupaea, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Anton Lienert-Brown.
Outside Backs: Will Jordan, Beauden Barrett, Josh Moorby, Rieko Ioane, Fehi Fineanganofo, Chay Fihaki.
Utility: Leicester Fainga’anuku.
*Awaiting injury updates
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and written several books about sport.