Kiwis v Tonga: Why New Zealand should win Rugby League World Cup semi-final – but it’s tough to call
Whichever way you look at it, the Rugby League World Cup semi-final between the Kiwis and Tonga is on a knife edge.
Saturday’s match in Newcastle (10.05pm NZT) will be an amazing spectacle – and should be an extremely tight contest.
New Zealand and Tonga are the two form teams of the competition.
Australia, for all their pedigree, have only impressed in fits and starts so far while Samoa don’t seem to be at quite the same level as a year ago and are missing the influence of powerhouse prop Payne Haas and the experience of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.
Whereas the Kiwis started the tournament with a bang and have got better, while Tonga are battle-hardened after the clash with England in Perth, followed by the epic contest against Samoa last Sunday.
The Kiwis have the best pack in the competition, with enviable depth and experience, shown by the presence of Naufahu Whyte and Erin Clark on the bench.
But Tonga will back themselves to physically match them and have their own interchange weapons like Demetric Vaimauga and Leka Halasima.
There’s not much between the outside backs – with or without Kalyn Ponga – and Casey McLean and Robert Toia bring X-factor to the centres. The Kiwis should have an edge at hooker, with Jeremy Marshall-King and the returning Phoenix Crossland, though the inexperienced Salesi Foketi has done wonders for Tonga.
As always, the halves will be key.
Kiwis’ halfback Jahrome Hughes looks in a good place and brings almost 200 games of NRL experience to the equation, plus a burning desire to make up for the semi-final elimination last time at the hands of Australia.
And Isaiya Katoa is a special talent – shown by his recent season for the Dolphins – and navigated last week’s cauldron superbly, while having his club coach Kristian Woolf in the same role for Tonga is a bonus.
Overall, the Kiwis should be too good, with their extra quality in the forwards, defensive aggressionand general experience the decisive factors.
They will know they can’t allow the Tongans to get momentum and also can’t afford the execution errors that cost them plenty of points against Australia and the Cook Islands.
It’s a tough scenario. If New Zealand get past Tonga they will likely be favourites in next week’s final but they have to conquer the Hillary step before they can even contemplate the summit.
They have the more difficult semi-final proposition, but it has always been that way for the Kiwis.
Since the World Cup tournament format was revived in 1995 – after two round-robins editions – the New Zealand team has almost never had an easy road to the decider. They’ve made the semi-finals in six of the seven events since then, putting aside the 2017 aberration where they were shocked 4-2 by Fiji in Wellington in the quarter-final.
But getting to the final has always been a battle.
In 1995 the Kiwis had a strong team – including Matthew Ridge, Henry Paul, Kevin Iro, Quentin Pongia, Stephen Kearney and an 18-year-old Stacey Jones – and were tipped to meet England in the semi-final.
The hosts upset Australia in the opening match, putting the Kangaroos on the other side of the draw.
That semi-final was a thriller. In the 78th minute Ridge had a sideline conversion to win the match, after the Kiwis had stormed back from 20-6 down to level the scores at 20-20.
He missed, before a long-range field goal attempt in the dying seconds – on his left foot – scraped the wrong side of the upright. Australia were too good in extra time, winning 30-20.
The 2000 tournament was the exception, as Frank Endacott’s team crushed England 49-6 in the semi-final, with Lesley Vainikolo prominent.
Eight years later the Kiwis again faced England in the last four, while the Kangaroos dealt to Fiji on the other side of the draw.
It was a fierce contest – with England inspired by Adrian Morley – before Benji Marshall’s team prevailed 36-22, on the way to their unforgettable triumph at Suncorp Stadium a week later.
2013 will always be remembered as the Kiwis’ greatest World Cup escape. They faced England at Wembley, while the Kangaroos again played Fiji. New Zealand were all but eliminated, trailing 18-14 with less than 30 seconds to play, before the miracle play from Shaun Johnson, as he stepped past two defenders to score, then nailed the conversion.
The last World Cup was the harshest scenario.
The Kiwis arrived at the tournament ranked No 1 in the world, thanks to their results in the intervening years. Somehow, they ended up seeded to meet the Kangaroos in the semi-final, a bizarre decision that seemed geared to help hosts England avoid the two big guns.
Staged at Elland Road, it was a match of fine margins but the Kangaroos showed greater composure in the final quarter to secure a 16-14 win, before their comprehensive win over Samoa the following week.
Kiwis World Cup semi-finals 1995-2026
1995: Australia 30 New Zealand 20
2000: New Zealand 49 England 6
2008: New Zealand 36 England 22
2013: New Zealand 20 England 18
2022: Australia 16 New Zealand 14
Kangaroos World Cup semi-finals 1995-2026
1995: Australia 30 New Zealand 20
2000: Australia 46 Wales 22
2008: Australia 52 Fiji 0
2013: Australia 64 Fiji 0
2017: Australia 54 Fiji 6
2022: Australia 16 New Zealand 14
Michael Burgess has been a sports journalist for the NZ Herald since 2005, covering the Olympics, Fifa World Cups, and America’s Cup campaigns. He is a co-host of the Big League podcast.