TODAY’S RACING
** Riccarton, two black-type races, first race 11.45am
** Ellerslie, first race 12.35pm
** Randwick, Spring Champion Stakes Day, first race 2.10pm (NZ time)
** Flemington, Ladbrokes Cox Plate Day, first race 2.25pm (NZ time)
The one seemingly certain factor about today’s A$6 million Ladbrokes Cox Plate is that it will be run at a gut-busting speed.
What is harder, and more crucial, to work out is who will that help?
In one corner we have the battle-hardened warriors like Sir Delius, Ceolwulf, Cosmic Crusader and the younger but still proven Aeliana, those last three all bred in New Zealand.
In the other corner stand two very good 3-year-olds in Warwoven and Blind Raise, with the sneaking suspicion Warwoven could actually be a little bit special after his crushing Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas victories.
The weight-for-age ranks have been confused this season by old warhorses like Light Infantry Man and Land Legend setting searing speeds that have taken the favourites out of their comfort zones and caused chaos for punters.
With both those Ciaron Maher stablemates in today’s field. those tactics look assured again as they will try to set up an even-time gallop for the 2040m. And with today’s Cox Plate transferred from its usual home to Moonee Valley to Flemington, it looks set to be survival of the fittest.
But does a frenetically run Cox Plate suit the old dogs for a hard road, or do you buy into the other famous racing saying that weight can stop a train?
Any one of Sir Delius, Ceolwulf, Cosmic Crusader, Light Infantry Man, Birdman or Aeliana could relish the battle conditions and outstay their rivals without stunning.
But the older boys are giving away almost 10kg under the weight-for-age scale to Warwoven and Blind Raise, while Aeliana concedes them 7.5kg.
If this Cox Plate is to be relentless, those bigger weights could start to feel uncomfortably heavy, especially as there has been no dominant 2000m weight-for-age horse in Australia this season that’s proven it’s immune to such pressures.
So while the proven weight-for-age horse might just keep going and outstay the youngsters, if a big strong colt like Warwoven is sitting midfield with that 49.5kg, which will feel like a feather on his back, he might simply run past the older brigade.
It is his first start past 1600m, but both his recent Group 1s have come in fast times, suggesting he should be able to maintain a strong gallop for the extra 440m. What’s more, his New Zealand-trained dam, Needle And Thread, won the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie over 2000m as a 3-year-old.
If the Sir Delius that beat Autumn Glow in the Queen Elizabeth II at Randwick in April turns up today, maybe he will be too tough in this most unusual of Cox Plates.
But if he doesn’t, Warwovan has a realistic chance to put an exclamation mark on what would be one of the great 3-year-old spring campaigns in decades.
Earlier in the Flemington programme, Wellington Cup winner Manzor Blue will try to win her way into the Melbourne Cup on November 3 by taking out the A$750,000 Ladbrokes Moonee Valley Cup.
Manzor Blue, who is trained by Lisa Latta, sits 46th in the order of entry for the Melbourne Cup but would get a golden ticket into the great race if she wins today.
If she doesn’t, there will be no New Zealand-trained horse in the Melbourne Cup this season.
RETURN TO FORM?
Don’t be surprised to see Crocetti bounce back to being a factor at Ellerslie today.
The one-time glamour galloper has run only one placing in seven starts since winning the Railway at Ellerslie 22 months ago.
But while he carries one of the worst formlines into today’s open 1600m on a good Ellerslie programme, his past two performances have offered glimmers of hope.
He was good in both the Proisir Plate (sixth) won by Well Written and the Howden Mile (eighth) won by Waitak, making ground wide but perhaps, more importantly, looking like he was still interested in being a racehorse.
He has been lumped with 62kg today, but apprentice Sam McNab’s claim will shave 2kg off that, and co-trainer Danny Walker thinks Crocetti is on the verge of better form.
“I can see him running top three on Saturday, even though he has a big weight, and then we are going to step him up to 2000m in the Balmerino Stakes next start,” says Walker.
Like Crocetti, El Vencedor has to carry a huge weight today and is still working his way back to his true form, but the pair add some serious Group 1 name recognition to today’s meeting.
Further south at Riccarton, two black-type races today are the next steps toward New Zealand Cup week, while Monday’s Sarten Memorial at Te Rapa will be a crucial form pointer to the NZ 2000 Guineas on November 14.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s racing editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.