Coniston heads confused NZ 2000 Guineas market after Sarten stunner
The New Zealand 2000 Guineas officially has the word classic attached to it.
And rightly so. The Group 1 to be held at Riccarton on November 14 is one of the traditional five “classics” of racing worldwide, alongside the 1000 Guineas, Derby, Oaks and St Leger.
But after a wild weekend of racing in the three-year-old male galloping ranks, a different C word sums up this year’s Guineas: Confused.
Rarely has 48 hours of racing changed the complexion of a NZ 2000 Guineas as much as this Labour Weekend did, especially as in recent years stars like Aegon, Crocetti, Catalyst or Saveglee have dominated the Guineas market a month or more out.
But not this season.
Because three weeks out from the $700,000 classic, picking who will start favourite is almost impossible, let alone selecting the winner.
Until Monday’s Sarten Memorial at Te Rapa unbeaten colt System Of Play was the clear Guineas favourite.
But he was a battling sixth in the $150,000 Group 2 won by bolter Coniston, who grabbed Justin Case on the line with maiden filly Joyeuse third.
Rip Tide looked a Guineas contender in fourth as did Raymond in fifth but you should be having a long, hard think before backing System Of Play to turn his performance around in the Guineas in three weeks.
While Coniston was at big odds in the Sarten, he had looked a proper Guineas horse three starts back and was then undone by a slow tempo race at Hastings.
But when it comes to the NZ 2000 Guineas, the Sarten Memorial is often the best form guide so Coniston is now the $5 equal favourite for trainers Andrew Scott and Lance O’Sullivan.
“His last start defeat at Hastings was a total forgive because he ran the second fastest last 600m but still ran last,” said Scott.
“But the way he found the line today [1400m] suggested he will love the 1600m at Riccarton so he has earned his spot now.”
Coniston is a big, good-looking colt by Wootton Bassett and, if he can go to Riccarton and win this Guineas, he will be worth a lot of money. But the way the pathway to this Guineas keeps taking detours, who knows what the next few weeks might bring.
Justin Case was a horse whose connections weren’t entirely sure was a natural Riccarton 1600m horse but he was so tenacious in defeat after being part of the early burn it would be extremely hard not to be booking him a plane ticket to Christchurch.
While some of the trainers of the beaten brigade will wait to trot their three-year-olds up tomorrow or the next day before making their final Guineas decisions, it wasn’t just the Sarten that muddied the Guineas waters over the long weekend.
Excite looked every inch a Guineas horse when he flattened out to win well at Ellerslie on Saturday, while one of the largest horses in this crop, Thunder In Motion, may have only beaten a small field at Trentham on Sunday but he has the stamp of a quality youngster.
He wasn’t even in the initial Guineas nominations but his connections will be thinking very seriously about paying the late entry fee with this Guineas becoming such a rollercoaster ride.
Old Fashioned, who started the weekend as the second favourite for the Guineas, now looks certain to miss the race after he was scratched from Trentham with a minor leg issue that could barely have come at a worse time.
Add to this complex mess of a market the fact Spellbound was scratched from the Sarten and will instead race at Ellerslie on November 3 to earn his way to the Riccarton, and the hint that Saturday’s War Decree Stakes winner Sword Of Stars could dodge the NZ 1000 Guineas to take on the boys.
That leaves us with one of the most open NZ 2000 Guineas build-ups in a decade, with the TAB having Excite as the equal $5 favourite alongside Consiton last night.
But punters be warned: you get the feeling this Guineas rollercoaster ride has a few more highs and lows to go.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse-racing carnivals.