Why election night may leave New Zealand twiddling its thumbs – The Front Page
The major parties are making their last pitch to voters, crisscrossing the country, trying to win over undecided Kiwis and convince them they deserve three years in Government.
National’s campaign bus left Wellington this morning to travel up the North Island to Auckland. Today it’s called the “Stick To The Plan Express” with a promise of a new moniker each day it makes its way up the country.
The Act Party has a bus too, nicknamed The Big Pinky, which is also on tour in the North Island.
Newstalk ZB political reporter Ethan Griffiths told The Front Page that Labour has chosen to focus its last push in the City of Sails.
“Labour, of course, struggled at the last election by quite some margin in Auckland. A lot of that was put down to Covid restrictions at the time, perhaps a little bit of fatigue and frustration with the party there.
“So their focus will be very much on Auckland. Of course, it’s trite, but as the saying goes, elections are won and lost in Auckland,” he said.
NZ First leader Winston Peters is in Auckland as well, visiting the Disability Expo 2026 and trying his hand at building part of a powered wheelchair.
But while the party leaders are focused on winning power, another battle is playing out behind the scenes: the fight for political survival.
With National and Labour polling well below their 2023 election results, a “large amount” of sitting MPs could find themselves out of a job come Saturday night.
”It’s quite shocking to find us in this position really, where you have so many senior MPs, especially on the blue side of politics, that could find themselves at risk,“ Griffiths says.
“For National, they are in the position where they are likely to keep a bunch of the electorates that they hold and end up with that overhang.
“That means that list seats are in trouble and the number one person on that list, or number two actually, is Nicola Willis, who is not running in an electorate and could find herself out of Parliament on Saturday.
“Gerry Brownlee is another one. Of course, the Speaker of the House, National’s longest-serving MP, entered Parliament in 1996 ... The likes of Paul Goldsmith, who is running in Epsom. He’s never won it. David Seymour has always won it.
“And then Chris Bishop, one of National’s most senior ministers as well, he could find himself in trouble in Hutt South, and if he loses that seat, you’d have to think it’s probably quite unlikely that he would find himself in Parliament,” Griffiths said.
The election campaign entered its final days with the final 1News-Verian poll showing the race too close to call.
There’s the question of whether polling will translate into results for Opportunity, a party that’s been touted as the new Kingmaker. There’s also the question of how much overhang there will be on either side.
“If we are dealing with an overhang scenario here, it could come down to a number of electorate races, including in the Māori seats, which have been tight in the past, but also general seats, National and Labour candidates going up against each other,” said Griffiths.
“There is a very real possibility that we could be twiddling our thumbs at midnight on Sunday, and not know what is happening, and wouldn’t that just be excruciating?” he said.
Listen to the full episode to hear more about:
- Fresh faces to watch
- Key battlegrounds
- Polling and coalition maths
- Life on a campaign bus.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5pm. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
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