Why the latest poll is hopeful for Labour, and is Luxon’s tactic working?
Last week, Labour was hoping that the 1News-Verian poll that had National ahead by five percentage points was a rogue result.
Last night indicated that that was the case, with the poll’s latest result showing National’s lead shrinking to 1.6% (28.9% versus 27.3%).
This would have been met in Labour circles with a huge sigh of relief, restoring what all the other polls have said in the last month: that National and Labour are more or less neck and neck.
This is especially welcome for Labour after what has been a torrid fortnight in the campaign, first with governing parties trying to make polling hay while the Mongrel Mob was shining, and second with the resignation of Labour’s Tāmaki Makaurau candidate Kerrin Leoni, who then decided she would still stand and enter Parliament as an independent if she won.
Labour’s hopes, it seems, remain alive.
A problem remains, however.
Labour’s support didn’t drop compared to the previous week, but it is still yet to see any upward movement in this poll since April.
The electoral calculus for Labour remains the same. To win, it needs the overhang strategy on the right to be ineffective, Opportunity to enter Parliament, and to beat National so Qiulae Wong starts negotiations with Labour first.
So while it was a relief to be within breathing space of National again, it wasn’t helpful that Opportunity continued to slide: from 8% in the 1News-Verian poll two weeks ago to 7% last week to 6.3% last night.
Backwards momentum appears to be putting Opportunity’s chance at making history at risk, and Labour’s chances with it.
That may or may not have something to do with National leader Christopher Luxon’s tactic of repeatedly ruling out Opportunity.
It’s a reversal of the 2023 strategy, when Luxon said he would pick up the phone to NZ First leader Winston Peters, but only if he had to.
The regretful among National speculate whether ruling out NZ First would have seen a National-Act coalition, with Peters falling short of the 5% he needed to return to Parliament.
Last night’s poll actually would have seen the National-Act-NZ First coalition re-elected, but only in the unlikely scenario of Te Pāti Māori failing to win more than one seat.
If Opportunity falls below 5%, however, then the coalition’s path to re-election is almost certainly assured.
We will soon know if Luxon’s ruling-out tactic with Opportunity will have worked.
Or whether Luxon, if National ends up winning the most seats, will have to swallow his word and take the call from Wong on the morning of November 8.
Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.