What voters don’t want to hear at high-stakes leaders’ debate – Audrey Young

We don’t need to know for the umpteenth time that Luxon thinks Labour are economic illiterates, or that Hipkins thinks Luxon and Nicola Willis have failed on their promise to fix the economy. We don’t want to see point-scoring and platitudes. At least minimise them.

Last week’s 1News Verian poll had the Opportunity Party holding the balance of power. The undecideds in last week’s 1News Verian poll were 13%. It will be a crucial night. No pressure, Jack Tame.

It’s not so much that there is no pool of money in Labour’s just-released fiscal plan on which to settle pay equity claims. It is that there would be virtually nothing left to fund cost pressures in many areas outside its explicit campaign promises, such as health, GP visits, prescriptions, school lunches, solar panels, apprenticeships and 6000 new state houses.

Health cost pressures are specifically funded to the tune of $13 billion over four years. Other promises are itemised, including a new promise to make an interim pay equity settlement for the 65,000 care and support workers of $4 extra an hour, which will cost $2.5b over four years.

It was a smart move to address those in greatest need. Those workers, doing God’s work with our elderly in their homes and rest homes, were the most hard-done-by group of workers in the coalition pay equity ambush in last year’s Budget.

National’s first groundbreaking pay equity settlement, established under the leadership of Sir Bill English in 2017, expired after five years and negotiations for a new agreement were advanced when the plug was suddenly pulled last year. Now many care and support workers are back near the minimum wage.

Future pay settlements were diverted to fund things such as the investment boost for business, which will be cut under Labour.

Sticking to National’s $2.4b-a-year new spending allowance (each year is cumulative) gives parties $24b over four years to fund their promises.

Labour has about $1 billion in policies yet to announce on the campaign, plus additional revenue of about $11 billion from policies including its capital gains tax and repealing investment boost. And it has about $10.5 billion in unallocated spending.

The unallocated spending is where the other settlements, estimated to be at least $8 billion, will be funded from but they will have to compete with other demands for funding in the public sector. In the scheme of things, that is a tiny amount.

The fiscal plan is extremely tight. Read the analysis of it here by Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan.

Fresh from an impressive performance in the Kingmakers Debate on Thursday, David Seymour launched the Act Party campaign yesterday in a big empty shed in Penrose, Auckland. It sounds less exciting than it was.

It was a perfectly choreographed event. The party needed a big enough venue to drive a shiny pink campaign bus through, nicknamed Big Pinky. Out popped the candidates and Seymour.

He delivered a rousing speech, with reference to Adam Smith and wealth creation for the party faithful, plus a new policy to exempt KiwiSaver returns from tax, which could add hundreds of thousands to the balances of savers by the time of their retirement.

Seymour was in fine form speaking to reporters afterwards, good-humoured and witty. He heads to Tauranga today and Rotorua tomorrow.

If he can maintain the positive vibes, it can only be good for his party’s fortunes. The campaign in 2023 was plagued with equal amounts of bad publicity and bad temper.

National is continuing to base a lot of its campaign on spurious claims about other parties’ promises. The party tweeted on Saturday that Labour would spend an extra $6.5b in foreign aid. Nicola Willis went even further yesterday by saying its foreign spokesperson had “promised” to spend $6.5b on foreign aid.

Considering the current Budget spend is just $1.2b, something doesn’t add up: either Labour’s “promise” or Willis’ claim.

The so-called promise Willis is referring to is a line in a foreign policy speech by Vanushi Walters in which she said: “Labour will progressively increase overseas development assistance towards 0.7% of GNI [gross national income] as fiscal conditions allow.”

Willis omitted to mention the bit I’ve highlighted in bold italics. In nobody’s language could that be construed as a promise. It is a goal, an aspiration, which may or may not happen depending on circumstances.

To say it is a promise is as misleading as Winston Peters suggesting the Government’s commitment to promote (emphasis mine) $35b in investments in India over the next 15 years under the FTA is a promise to invest $35b. It is not. Words matter.

Political parties have had a policy blitz in the past few days: National on energy, Mill Rd, the Belfast to Pegasus Motorway and Woodend Bypass; Labour on a fair go law, pay equity and its fiscal plan; the Greens on rail travel and capping public transport costs; and Act on exempting KiwiSaver returns from tax.

Christopher Luxon is campaigning for National in Christchurch today, while Chris Hipkins will be in Auckland. Act’s David Seymour has a public meeting in Tauranga at 6pm and another tomorrow in Rotorua. Act candidate Paul Henry has a public meeting in Whakatāne on Wednesday.

Tomorrow at 7pm Luxon and Hipkins will go head-to-head in the first leaders’ debate, hosted by Jack Tame on TVNZ.

On Wednesday at 7pm, the Herald and Three will present a debate on the Future of New Zealand hosted by Ryan Bridge. It will feature a panel of entrepreneurs and business leaders alongside National’s Nicola Willis, Labour’s Barbara Edmonds, New Zealand First’s Shane Jones, Act’s Nicole McKee, the Greens’ Tamatha Paul, Te Pāti Māori’s Oriini Kaipara and Opportunity’s Daniel Eb. You can watch it live on the Herald website, ThreeNow or live-to-air television on Three.

“The Act Party’s job is to keep Labour out of Government and Labour’s ideas out of National.” David Seymour at Act’s campaign launch yesterday.

Who is the current MP representing the Chatham Islands in Parliament? (Answer at the bottom of this article.)

Goes to National’s Simeon Brown and Nicola Willis for claiming that Labour will increase the current foreign aid spending of $1.2b by $6.5b (see above). Ever hear about the boy who cried wolf?

Goes to Chatham Air for sponsoring a flight of Wellington Bays candidates to the Chatham Islands for its first meet-the-candidates election meeting. A service to democracy.

Opinion – Labour spending plan:Labour’s fiscal plan answers some questions, but leaves $10b hanging – Thomas Coughlan

Labour spending plan: Hipkins says Nats failed to ‘pay women properly’ as Willis calls Labour’s fiscal plan a ‘fraud’

Policy guide: Education, health, tax, housing – compare every major party policy so far

KiwiSaver policy: Act announces multibillion-dollar KiwiSaver tax cut – but there’s a catch

Transport policy: Green Party promises free travel for children, $2 adult fares, light rail for key cities

Light list: Te Pāti Māori selects just one list candidate for 2026 election

Energy policy: National pledges energy sector change to bring down power bills

Willis v Edmonds: Willis, Edmonds clash over small business policy in Beyond the Ballot debate

Opinion – Cabinet jobs:NZ Foreign Minister – if it’s not Winston Peters, then who? – Audrey Young

Former Speaker’s death: ‘Quiet resolve and dignity’ – why Adrian Rurawhe kept his illness quiet

Chathams debate: ‘Cost of living is out the gate’ – a night at NZ’s most remote election debate

Opinion – Opportunity dealbreakers:Opportunity is being exceptionally honest about its bottom lines. Is that a mistake? – Thomas Coughlan

Opinion – Kingmakers debate:Minor party leaders kickstart election sparring in breathless first debate – Adam Pearse

Quiz answer: Green MP Julie-Anne Genter, MP for Rongotai and candidate for the redrawn seat of Wellington Bays.

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