The Northern Express Herald

Election 2026: What do the early results tell us – Audrey Young

Audrey Young
Opinion by
Audrey Young, Senior Political Correspondent at the New Zealand Herald based at Parliament, specialises in writing about politics and power.
From left: National ministers Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith and Gerry Brownlee.
Join host Ryan Bridge and special guests for live, uninterrupted coverage of every result as it comes in. Get all the key moments, analysis & updates in our Election Night Special.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is likely to be feeling more pleased tonight than Chris Hipkins, with about 26% of booths counted.

The three coalition parties would be able to return to power, but with Opportunity in tow.

Earlier projections suggested the coalition could govern without Opportunity. The margins are very narrow and are changing frequently.

With Opportunity hovering just above the 5% threshold, if it eventually dips below it, the coalition’s position would be even more secure.

It looks as though both National and Te Pāti Māori will have large overhangs, with four or five, because the two parties are projected to win more electorates than their party vote entitles them to.

The most satisfactory outcome would be if the two sets of overhangs cancelled each other out, in order to avoid outcries of the result being disproportionate and unfair.

It looks as though three of National’s most senior list MPs, Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith and Speaker Gerry Brownlee are out of Parliament and it is touch and go whether Chris Bishop will hold Hutt South.

Labour appears to be overtaking him with about a third of booths counted.

While Luxon may be feeling relieved that National’s support hasn’t slumped as much as some polls predicted, the decapitation of some of its senior MPs means he should not stay relaxed for long. Accountability will come eventually.

So far, no electorate counts could be considered an upset.

National’s Tim Costley is holding Kāpiti, Greg Fleming is holding Mangakiekie, and Dana Kirkpatrick is holding East Cape. Katie Milne is ahead for National in West Coast-Tasman. National is reclaiming Tāmaki.

National’s Ryan Hamilton is currently trailing in Hamilton East.

Labour’s Michael Wood appears to be reclaiming Mt Roskill, Tracey McClellan is reclaiming Banks Peninsula, and it is holding Wigram with new candidate Dominik Yanzick and George Hampton in Christchurch Central.

CTU economist Craig Renney looks set to miss out on a seat in Parliament, trailing Green MP Julie Anne Genter in Wellington Bays.