Voting has closed and the count is underway. What happens now?
Results start coming in from 7pm with the first results expected to be entered before 7.30pm. The Herald will be publishing the numbers as soon as they come in.
The Electoral Commission sets targets for when it aims to have a proportion of the count completed by. By 10pm, results from 50% of voting places are expected to be published while 95% of results should be released by 11.30pm.
However, these results are considered preliminary as they do not include special votes, such as those made overseas or out of a person’s electorate.
The official count, as it’s termed, begins on Sunday and includes checking whether anyone has voted more than once, conducting a second count of “ordinary votes”, allowing time for overseas votes and votes cast outside of electorates to return, removing votes from dual voters or those who have died, counting the special votes and conducting quality assurance checks.
The commission expects to confirm the official count on Friday, November 27.
What happens during the period between election night and November 27 depends heavily on where the numbers fall and who holds the balance of power.
Many commentators have predicted tonight will not deliver the public a clear indication of who will form the next government, meaning that we may need to wait until the end of the month to get a better idea.
If Opportunity breaches the 5% threshold, as three polls in the final week suggested it would, it is likely Qiulae Wong’s party could decide whether Christopher Luxon or Chris Hipkins have their second stint as PM.
In 2023, National and Act held some preliminary negotiations but it wasn’t until after the official count was returned that coalition talks began properly along with New Zealand First.
That is likely to happen again if there isn’t a clear result tonight.
Opportunity, which claims to be able to work with either the left or right bloc, has stated it would talk first to the party with the most seats and would not conduct dual negotiations. That means if the first round of talks fail to produce an agreement, another round may be required.
Many of the parties have been quizzed on whether they think a government can be formed by Christmas. Labour recently committed to a government by Christmas but has watered that down, clarifying it can’t control the pace of other parties. Other leaders including Christopher Luxon and Winston Peters have indicated they are comfortable with negotiations taking as long as necessary to achieve a positive result.
No matter what, the politicians need to be sitting in the House by January 14, which is the last day for Parliament to meet after the election.
Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.