Election 2026: New poll should shake Labour from fantasy it can gain power off back of unpopular Christopher Luxon - Jamie Ensor

It is, of course, worth keeping in mind this is just one poll, and Labour is trying to undermine its credibility. Hipkins told the Herald his party wasn’t “focused on rogue polls”. It’s unlikely to derail the party’s strategy.

A critical part of that strategy has been to play up National leader Christopher Luxon as out of touch with ordinary New Zealanders. Labour frequently posts videos of Luxon on their social media to remind followers of his latest gaffe.

Luxon hasn’t helped himself, particularly this past week, arguably the most disastrous of his already embattled leadership.

Belittling the concerns of business, powerless to act against his coalition partner, revealed to have used the air force to get home from a party fundraiser, and then blurting out on air that he wanted to put the country’s entire electoral system to a vote.

After the National leader was on Monday forced to apologise for telling businesses to act like adults in economically tough times, Labour’s campaign chair Kieran McAnulty gave an insight into the value his party sees in Luxon.

When it was put to him that Luxon resigning wouldn’t be in Labour’s interest, McAnulty said: “God no”.

“No, we’re very happy to have him as leader. Every day he stays as Prime Minister increases our chances of election.”

But despite Luxon’s repeated blunders, Labour isn’t surging past National. If Luxon was such an asset to Labour, why isn’t it doing better?

This Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll was taken over the course of last weekend and the start of this week.

While it covers the days immediately after Luxon’s business comments in Rotorua, and his apology came halfway through the polling period, it’s unclear how much they would have cut through into the electorate by then.

The poll follows a relative quiet patch on the policy front from Labour.

After several announcements in June and early July, by the time these pollsters went into the field, there hadn’t been a new policy from Labour in weeks. (It did announce a small business policy this week after polling ended).

In that time, Hipkins was mostly in the headlines reacting to issues within the governing parties – think Labour’s response to comments by Shane Jones about India and a subservient Prime Minister and Winston Peters about the Greens’ Lawrence Xu-Nan.

The policies Labour did earlier announce also didn’t set the world on fire; an updated Apprenticeship Boost programme and a solar panel scheme that seemed to just follow in the steps of a similar policy by National, despite Labour’s going further.

But potentially the biggest factor during that period has been growing focus on Opportunity, which this poll affirms is now in with a very real shot of having representation in Parliament after November 7.

Luxon’s decision last Monday to rule out Opportunity will have given the green light to some left-leaning voters to throw the ascendant party their support without the concern Opportunity could end up going with the right.

The timing couldn’t have been any better for Opportunity, which then held its party list announcement last Friday, an unofficial campaign launch. The party was given bursts of exposure to the public at a pivotal period, even if it also renewed scrutiny of the credibility of its policy platform.

Reaching 6.1%, Opportunity can no longer be dismissed as a media construction as some like to argue. Every political party will be factoring into their post-election plans the possibility Opportunity takes up seats in Parliament.

That rise could be coming at the cost of support for Labour, especially if some of their voters see Opportunity as offering something slightly more radical and fresher than Labour’s very deliberately middle-of-the-road capital gains tax.

Although Opportunity paints itself as centrist, its tax plan is for the most part the inverse of what those in the governing bloc stand for.

Taxing the value of Kiwis’ private property and giving a handout to everyone regardless of need doesn’t align with what voters may expect of National or Act (though Nicola Willis and David Seymour may like to get their hands on the billions of savings Opportunity’s public service changes would generate).

Labour throughout this period has also kept quiet on its preferences for a future governing arrangement.

It plans to announce this shortly, but some voters may scoff at its near-daily criticism of NZ First, while being unwilling to actually rule out working with them (Hipkins did rule Peters out as Foreign Affairs Minister this week).

Sticking to a strategy to announce plans on a certain date does show discipline, in contrast to Luxon’s random announcements/non-announcements of the past two weeks.

But Labour also needs to prove to its voters it can show initiative and grab the agenda. It was able to do this with its three free doctor visits policy last year, but nothing since has had quite the impact.

When others are coming for your vote, waiting for Luxon’s next faux pas just isn’t enough.

Jamie Ensor is the NZ Herald’s chief political reporter, based in the press gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. He was a finalist in 2025 for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.