Election 2026: Five knife-edge seats that could decide which bloc of parties takes victory
Labour leader Chris Hipkins may have perfectly summed up the story of last night’s knife-edge election in his speech to supporters.
“New Zealand has spoken,” he said. “It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you’ve said.”
Based on the preliminary results, several seats are too close to call, with special votes still to be added and recounts likely.
Here are five tight electorates that could decide who will be forming New Zealand’s next Parliament.
Mt Roskill
In perhaps the tightest – and most interesting – electorate race of the election, Labour’s Michael Wood leads Carlos Cheung by 266 votes with 99% counted.
The race see-sawed all night, with one singular vote separating the two at multiple times in the race.
If incumbent Cheung – who edged Wood out at the 2023 election to flip a Labour stronghold – squeaks it out, it will be massive for National’s chances of governing with Act and New Zealand First and will be one of many seats contributing to National’s overhang.
For Wood, the former Cabinet minister looking to return to Parliament, it’s a huge race for Labour’s slim chances of forming a government and also for his own political career.
Wood was famously suspended by Hipkins and subsequently lost his ministerial roles in June 2023 because of failures to declare financial conflicts of interest.
But his political comeback has seen him tipped as a potential future Labour Party leader – if the votes end up falling his way.
Chance of change: High
Wellington Bays
While the final result of Wellington Bays will have less of an impact on the next government, it could be one of the bigger upsets of the election.
Labour’s Craig Renney leads the Green Party’s Julie Anne Genter by only 140 votes with 100% counted – a race that turned out a lot closer than many expected and could still go the other way.
Genter, who won Rongotai by 2717 votes in the previous election, was highly favoured in the Green-leaning urban seat, but new boundaries clearly brought Labour into the race.
Economist Renney needs to win to secure a job in Parliament and will be hoping special votes continue to swing his way.
Chance of change: High
Wairarapa
Kieran McAnulty may have fallen just short of flipping the rural seat of Wairarapa back to Labour, having lost his seat to National’s Mike Butterick in 2023 – but there’s not much in it with 100% of the preliminary votes counted.
Incumbent Butterick leads by only 139 votes, with the popular former minister Ron Mark of NZ First likely splitting some of the votes on the right.
It was always going to be a close one – and the result may yet still change.
Chance of change: High
Hamilton East
National’s Ryan Hamilton leads Labour’s Georgie Dansey by 456 votes with 100% counted.
However, with the votes so close, special votes may swing the seat the other way – and a recount can’t be ruled out.
Hamilton said the numbers are a “really positive indication”. However, he said he doesn’t want to get ahead of himself.
If the seat does flip Labour’s way, it would be a big win for Dansey, who lost to Hamilton by 5060 votes in the previous election.
Chance of change: Low
Te Tai Tokerau
A highly competitive seat in 2023, Te Tai Tokerau once again proved to be the closest Māori seat this election – but this time in a race between a new Te Pāti Māori candidate and the Green Party.
Te Pāti Māori’s Aperahama Edwards leads Hūhana Lyndon of the Greens by 497 votes with 98% counted.
With incumbent Mariameno Kapa-Kingi contesting under her Te Tai Tokerau Party banner after her expulsion from Te Pāti Māori, it’s left the door open for Lyndon to make a run at the seat.
If the votes somehow swing late towards the Greens, the left bloc’s overhang would be reduced by a seat and it would be a major blow to Labour’s chances of leading a government.
It looks like Te Pāti Māori may yet hold on, but it remains – like many of the races – too close to call.
Chance of change: Low