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Election 2026: Clutch of senior ministers including Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith likely out of Parliament

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National’s deputy leader has conceded she’ll be out of Parliament, saying she has “likely lost her job”.

Several of the National Party’s most senior members are likely to be out of a job after the 2026 General Election, as 16 members from across the political spectrum face the boot.

The biggest casualties of the night include the National Party’s deputy leader and Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith and Gerry Brownlee.

Willis, ranked No 2 on the party list, was one of the most senior members of Parliament, working as Minister of Finance, Social Investment, Economic Growth and the Public Service over the past term.

She decided to run as a list-only candidate, requiring the party to maintain the party vote it received at the 2023 General Election, which has not eventuated.

National deputy leader Nicola Willis at the party's HQ. She has conceded she is not likely to get back into Parliament. Photo / Dean Purcell

National Party members Nicola Willis (left) and Mark Mitchell. On current numbers, Willis will likely be out of Parliament. Photo / Dean Purcell

Willis expressed “disappointment” to media that it was looking “very unlikely” she will be returning to Parliament.

“The thing that’s always mattered most to me is that National can form a government and can keep governing the country, and it looks so far like that is still a possibility,” Willis said.

“So I’m really pleased to see that for New Zealand. On the other hand it is looking very unlikely that I will be returning to Parliament, so that does come with some disappointment.

“But at the same time, I really do feel immense gratitude for the opportunity I have had to serve as Minister of Finance in this Luxon Government and to be an MP for eight years.”

Also likely out of Parliament is number three on the National Party list, Chris Bishop.

Bishop served several roles over the past term, including as Attorney-General and Minister of Housing, Infrastructure, RMA Reform, Transport and Associate Minister of Finance.

Bishop was not running solely on the party list, but instead running in the electorate of Hutt South, against the Labour Party’s Ginny Andersen.

National Party's Chris Bishop remains behind in the closely fought Hutt South race and would be out of Parliament on current numbers.

Number six on the party list, Paul Goldsmith, joins them after failing to win an electorate seat in Epsom, in an attempt to unseat Act Party leader David Seymour.

Goldsmith was the minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage, Defence, the GCSB and NZSIS, Justice, Media and Communications, Pacific Peoples, Public Service and Digitising Government, Space, Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations and for Veterans.

Speaking to reporters, Goldsmith said he was feeling very nervous about the result, given everything was on a knife edge.

“Politics is a rough business, and we’ve given it our best shot. I’m very proud of the achievements that we’ve made in Government, but ultimately it’s the people who get to choose,” Goldsmith said.

Speaker of the House Gerry Brownlee. Photo / RNZ

“Personally this is the end of my career. I’m sad in one respect, but also pleased at the progress we’ve made.

Speaker of the House Gerry Brownlee is also looking a likely casualty as tonight’s results unfurl.

Brownlee was first elected to Parliament in 1996, meaning the likely end of a 30-year political career.

Other National Party members likely to be out of Parliament include Nancy Lu, ranked No 15 on the party list, Mike Butterick, ranked No 20, Melissa Lee, ranked 29, and Vanessa Weenink, ranked No 38.

Lu, Butterick and Weenink were first-term members of Parliament, while Lee will find herself out of politics for the first time since being elected via the list in 2008.

Lee has contested and lost the Mt Albert byelection for the past six elections, known as a safe seat for the Labour Party.

As for the Labour Party, Georgie Dansey is unlikely to make it to Parliament, ranked No 32.

She became a list MP following the resignation of Adrian Rurawhe in 2026. Rurawhe later died on September 30, 2026.

Likely joining Dansey will be Deborah Russell, ranked No 27, Dan Rosewarne, ranked No 35 and Rachel Boyack, ranked No 36.

Looking to the minor parties, New Zealand First’s Jamie Arbuckle is unlikely to return at No 13 on the party list after one term in Parliament.

The Green Party’s Mike Davidson is likely out at No 20 on the party list. Davidson was elected to Parliament on October 6, 2025 to fill the list vacancy arising from the resignation of Benjamin Doyle.

The Act Party’s Mark Cameron is also likely out of Parliament after electing to run on an electorate-only basis. He ran in the Northland electorate.

ACT's Mark Cameron. Photo / Getty Images

Independent candidates Tākuta Ferris and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi will also likely be out of Parliament, with both candidates trailing in the Māori seats.

Ferris and Kapa-Kingi were expelled from the Māori Party in late 2025 after inner turmoil with the party.

This election is very likely to deliver an overhang, which is prompted if a political party wins more electorate seats than its share of the party vote entitles it to.

If a party’s share of the party vote entitles it to more seats in Parliament than the number of seats won by that party’s electorate candidates, the shortfall is made up from candidates from the party’s list.

However, with a party vote share smaller than the number of electorates won, no MPs would come in on the list.

Tom Raynel is a multimedia business journalist for the Herald, covering small business, retail and tourism.