Election 2026 Campaign Diary: Why National targeted Chlöe Swarbrick, plus brickbats and bouquets
Voters will ultimately have the final say on who ran the best campaign, but in the meantime, here are some of my observations and brickbats and bouquets earned in the past six weeks.
National’s earworm
The party essentially campaigned on maintaining the status quo (“stick to the plan”) in a climate of widespread unhappiness with the status quo. Christopher Luxon, a natural optimist, was not a good fit for an overwhelmingly negative campaign. It did, however, come up with the earworm of the campaign, “no new taxes”. But it could have used Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Erica Stanford and Mark Mitchell to greater effect.
Labour’s under-used MP
Trying to demonise Chris Hipkins is about as effective as attacking the Boy Scouts. He has improved every passing day with clarity and focus. Likewise, tax lawyer Barbara Edmonds has enough credibility as an orthodox Finance Minister that National dared not draw attention to her, and instead attacked Chlöe Swarbrick. Labour could have used Edmonds to greater effect.
Greens make it easy
When you have a policy to raise $28.7 billion extra from nine new taxes over four years, it’s not hard to cosplay Mother Christmas with fantastical spending promises. On top of that, Swarbrick (with Hipkins) has consistently been the best performer in day-to-day media appearances and was boosted by incessant attacks from National.
Successful double Act
The most impressive campaign in terms of planning, organisation and execution, including the addition of Paul Henry. A risk that paid off, at least on the campaign, to complement David Seymour. Seymour was the only one of the three coalition leaders who managed to comfortably campaign for both his party and the coalition, a novelty in the evolution of MMP.
NZ First’s risky retreads
Besides the occasional grizzle about media and other leaders patting dogs, leader Winston Peters has been in relatively good humour, which is often the difference between a successful NZ First campaign and a poor one. This one has had big public meetings at its heart, organised by an experienced crew who must wonder why Peters continues to promote risky retreads ahead of loyal incumbents.
Te Pāti Māori: Not clever
They started it. The campaign to engineer an overhang, when it was already on the cards, has been met with a tit-for-tat response from the deep pockets on the right and will likely lead to changes to the Electoral Act to prevent future distortions. That is the opposite of clever. Could have used Rawiri Waititi more. Great jackets.
Opportunity’s stand-out star
In just one year, the political novice Qiulae Wong has taken an unsuccessful and factionalised party to potentially holding the balance of power. Win or lose, her party could have a decisive role in determining the next Government. If it doesn’t get over 5%, the Coalition is heavily favoured. If it does, Labour has a chance to make history. She has been the stand-out story of 2026, not just the election campaign.
Brickbats
Michael Laws – Derailed his party’s campaign at a vital time through a gross lack of judgment. Repugnant, not puckish.
Kerrin Leoni – Derailed her party’s campaign by wrongly assuring her leader she had not campaigned with the Mob. A self-inflicted tragedy.
Harry Mowbray – Led an expensive campaign to distort proportionality in a bid to discredit MMP. A latter-day Peter Shirtcliffe.
Bouquets
Chris Bishop – has had more nice things said about him by other parties than anyone else. An even bigger future, if he survives.
Kieran McAnulty – for injecting some humour into the campaign eg admitting in a TVNZ debate that everything he knew about nuclear power came from The Simpsons.
Half-shorn sheep ad – a simple, effective metaphor from National that the job is only half done, reminiscent of Steven Joyce’s rowing ad in 2014.
ICYMI
Catch up with the final day of the campaign from the Herald blog, including a summary of the final poll, Peters voting and Hipkins in Wellington.
Political editor Thomas Coughlan reports on the final stages of Luxon’s campaign,Derek Cheng has looked at the potential coalition outcomes of the election, and what policies could survive.
And Herald contributor David Cohen suggests that instead of moaning about how dull the two Chrises have been, it is cause for celebration.
Voting on Saturday runs from 9am to 7pm, and you can find a polling booth near you by searching here.
Stay with us at www.nzherald.co.nz for results and commentary on Saturday night.