Election 2026 Campaign Diary: The best and worst start to the final week
The last week of the campaign has begun in the worst way for National’s Christopher Luxon with the dispute among the right over the engineered overhang strategy simply amplifying it.
And it has begun well for Chris Hipkins’ Labour with the Ipsos Issues Monitor showing
Luxon says the engineered overhang strategy is “a deliberate attempt to confuse voters”. Former National and Act leader Don Brash says Luxon is “simply wrong and he’s misleading the public”.
Brash, however, admits to being inconsistent in his messaging when it comes to advising voters what to do in Epsom and Tamaki.
As Brash told NZ Herald’s Adam Pearse, it was the price of Act’s permission to run ads promoting the overhang strategy.
Act’s Paul Henry has put the boot into Sir John Key, calling it two-faced and arrogant for encouraging Epsom voters to give their electorate vote to Cabinet minister Paul Goldsmith, a shift from the previous strategic voting signals given to Epsom voters from 2011.
Of course, it is all strategic voting, as Henry claims, and they are both within the rules. But there is a difference between encouraging voters to trigger the coat-tailing rule of MMP and encouraging them to engineer an overhang.
The former is aimed at getting a result that is proportional to a party’s overall party vote, by getting at least one electorate MP, and the latter is about distorting proportionality of the party vote by getting more electorate seats than the party vote.
Let me count the ways
National pollster David Farrar appeared on Reality Check Radio, which has been running pro-overhang ads from Don Brash funded by Harry Mowbray, to explain why he does not support the overhang campaign.
Talking to Paul Brennan, Farrar said if it worked, it would attract a public backlash because:
- It undermined MMP.
- It could replace three strong National ministers – Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and Paul Goldsmith – with three low-ranked Act or NZ First candidates.
- It could escalate and encourage the left of politics to do the same and the election result would be determined by the best overhang strategy.
- It would permanently weaken National as it could not attract high-quality list candidates such as Steven Joyce.
- There was a danger in treating National, Act and New Zealand First as though they were interchangeable.
The day the campaign should stand still
We expect campaigning to stand still at 4.55pm on Tuesday for the running of the Melbourne Cup. NZ First leader and Racing Minister Winston Peters will head to the race meeting at Ellerslie, which always has a Melbourne Cup Day event and broadcasts the big race.
No need for the politicians to agonise over which horse to back in the Cup, however. I’ve assigned them a runner for the sweepstake: Peters will get Onesmoothoperator; Qiulae Wong will get Goodie Two Shoes; Christopher Luxon has been given Trustyourinstinct; Chris Hipkins has got Future History; David Seymour has Point of Law; and Chloe Swarbrick gets Middle Earth (a fantasy). Good luck to all the connections.
They said it
“He is not a student of history.” Winston Peters comments on Christopher Luxon ruling out sharing the Prime Minister’s job and points to George Forbes in the 1930s.
Campaign quiz
In what electorate is Green MP Steve Abel standing?
Looking ahead
Tuesday: David Seymour is campaigning in Palmerston North, Qiulae Wong is campaigning in Christchurch.
Wednesday: Chris Hipkins will be campaigning in Kāpiti and Porirua.
Quiz answer: Waitākere
ICYMI
Follow the Herald’s blog for live updates including the fact an Opportunity Party van has been pulled from the campaign for failing a WoF. And Adam Pearse reports on a leaked message to National Tamaki supporters advising them what not to wear when the leader did his walkabout on the campaign. Just about every plausible scenario for the election result was canvassed in this pieceover the weekend by the Herald’s political editor Thomas Coughlan, including reasons it could be tight and reasons it could be clear-cut on the night. Coughlan has also looked at the MPs whose jobs are under threatand Derek Cheng at the differences between Chris Hipkins in the 2023 campaign and the 2026 campaign.