Election 2026 Campaign Diary: First it was Chris and Chris, now it’s Harry and Harry
It began as the campaign of the two Chrises, Luxon and Hipkins, and now it has become the campaign of the two Harrys, Tam and Mowbray, with just over one week to go.
Tam of the Mongrel Mob is now campaign history.
Mowbray’s presence has been omnipresent as he seeks to engineer an overhang on the right of politics by trying to persuade people to give their party vote to Act or New Zealand Firstinstead of National.
It has put National on the back foot in this campaign and particularly this week, with time and effort being directed to counter the campaign, which is essentially a diversion from policy. The campaign could be having some impact with National dropping several points in two polls published this week.
Mowbray has admitted his motive is not just to counter a similar campaign by Te Pāti Māori for the centre-left, but to turn more people against MMP.
Asked by RNZ’s Guyon Espiner if the campaign was intended to discredit MMP, he said “absolutely”.
He believes that MMP is a “complete dog” of an electoral system. “My big push on all this is in fact to show people how bad MMP is.”
He believes that the smaller parties have too great a say in MMP and, ironically, is encouraging people to vote for smaller parties to highlight that.
An overhang allows a party to keep all electorate seats it wins, even if there are more than its party vote entitles it to. It distorts the proportionality of Parliament, which is the central tenet of MMP. Here’s how the rest of the week has gone for the main parties:
National’s old attack lines
A tough week. It has been hard for the party to get clear air and has spent much of the week reviving old attack lines about $18 billion holes and nine new taxes and fighting the deep pockets of Harry Mowbray and Don Brash’s overhang campaign.
Labour’s big unknown
The party may be relieved its support was not apparently dented by the gang saga, and the resignation last week of its Tāmaki Makaurau candidate for campaigning with gangs. But what cannot be measured is whether the party would have gained momentum if it had not been bogged down in the issue for two weeks.
Greens’ big flub
Chlöe Swarbrick and Marama Davidson have had a relatively good week publicity-wise, with the exception of Davidson flubbing on the Government’s cost of borrowing, suggesting it was 1% to 2% when it is 4.94%. Every time National warns about the possibility of Chlöe Swarbrick as Minister of Finance in a Labour-led Government, her heart swells with pride.
Act’s error-free week
The best campaign of the week. No obvious errors, no errant candidate videos and whenever Labour warns about the possibility of David Seymour as Finance Minister, he likes to keep the dream alive. Deputy leader Nicole McKee was tested in her appearance in the TVNZ Kaupapa debate, but did not disgrace herself.
NZ First says it aloud
Mixed fortunes. Ron Mark’s video sounding off against man-buns, diversity hires and woke bull**** in the Defence Force offended many but it is increasingly the party that says aloud the bits that others only dare utter in anonymous social media posts. Winston Peters continues to draw big crowds at public meetings with Papakura and Ōrewa over the weekend.
An opportunity for No 5
Opportunity’s Christchurch Central candidate and No 5 placed candidate Eden Skipper got a national platform on the TVNZ Kaupapa debate alongside six sitting MPs. He held his own.
Co-leader back on the trail
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer was back on the trail this week after a month’s leave to spend time with and farewell her mother. She appeared on Wakaata Māori’s raucous Whakatau debate, and Rawiri Waititi fronted for TVNZ’s more orderly Kaupapa debate.
Caucus discussion revealed
When Aged Care Association chief executive and ex New Zealand First MP Tracey Martin thanked her old boss Winston Peters for speaking to the association conference in Wellington on Friday, she told them that Peters had once helped get a pay rise for the cleaners in their offices. There had been a campaign for MPs to spend a night alongside cleaners to better understand their work, which was being discussed at caucus. Peters instead suggested the MPs take a pay cut in favour of the cleaners.
Most original policy award
It has to go to the person promoting a new member’s bill for introduction to Parliament to put a stop to the nightly television clips of politicians scooping ice cream; the Short Campaign (Rollickin’ Gelato) Candidate Exclusion Bill “prohibits every candidate for election to the House of Representatives from entering or being present on the premises in Christchurch trading as Rollickin’ Gelato during the short campaign, being the period beginning on writ day and ending with the close of polling day”. Well done to press gallery rival and Post political editor Henry Cooke.
Most in touch with the cost-of-living award
One of the best segments in the TVNZ Kaupapa Debate yesterday was when the seven candidates were presented with five grocery items and asked to estimate their total price: a loaf of sliced brown bread, one block of butter, 1kg of beef mince, one dozen eggs and a 2-litre bottle of milk. You might be surprised at the results, when measured by the difference between their guesses and the reality.
Act deputy leader Nicole McKee was the winner, estimating they cost $47, just $1.20 less than the actual total of $48.20 (according to the latest food price index). Green co-leader Marama Davidson did worst, estimating they cost $70, or $21.80 too much. National’s Tama Potaka did second best, $6.80 over, Opportunity’s Eden Skipper next at $8.20 under, Labour’s Willie Jackson next at $10.20 under, Te Pāti Māori’s Rawiri Waititi next at $11.80 over, then Shane Jones at $13.20 under, and lastly Davidson. Davidson claimed to have seen such high prices at her local supermarket in Manurewa. Jones says he never does the shopping. “I’ve got daughters, wives and other people to do that.”
They said it
“There’s all these lunatics out there saying support National by voting for somebody else.” National MP and frustrated Epsom candidate Paul Goldsmith on Herald NOW.
Campaign quiz
In what electorate is Ōrewa and who is the sitting MP?
Looking ahead
Saturday: David Seymour is campaigning in Epsom, Chlöe Swarbrick is campaigning in Auckland Central, Christopher Luxon is campaigning in Auckland.
Sunday: Qiulae Wong is running the Auckland marathon (11km), and Winston Peters has a public meeting in Ōrewa at 3pm.
Quiz Answer: Whangaparāoa, currently held by Mark Mitchell.
ICYMI
Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny talked to Opportunity’s largest donor and board member AJ Wilderlandabout what motivates him and how post-election talks might go. Political editor Thomas Coughlan has been on the campaign trail with Act leader David Seymour and Tamaki candidate James Christmas. Derek Cheng takes a look at Labour’s law and order policy, or the lack of it in its manifesto: “There is barely anything substantial in it,” writes Cheng. “Nor is there any pledge to reverse what the coalition Government has done: the gang patch ban, the longer sentences, Three Strikes 2.0 or the public funding of cultural reports.”