Election 2026: Are there 480,000 undecided voters who will determine this election? – Adam Pearse

Labour and National are trading places as the party with the largest support. On Tuesday morning, RNZ-Reid Research had Labour leading on 30.8% to National’s 25.9%. By the evening, 1News-Verian had National on 29% with Labour trailing on 28% (it’s worth noting the pollsters were in the field at different times).

The Green Party appears to be holding a healthier vote share of late, as high as 16%, while Act and New Zealand First bob around within the 9-12% range. Te Pāti Māori encouraging supporters not to give it their party vote seems to be getting through, rarely receiving more than 2%.

Thursday’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll has been the only poll in the last month to have Opportunity below the 5% threshold at 4.8%, but accounting for the margin of error, Curia, which also does National’s internal polling, acknowledges Qiulae Wong’s party could be above 5%.

Party leaders, who are happy to revel in positive polls but dismiss those to the contrary, concede all the signs suggest a tight race. Both Chrises are at pains to make the point, although that may reflect that both their parties are struggling to find 30% support in a grumpy electorate suffering from a seemingly never-ending cost-of-living crisis.

Throw in a contentious debate about strategic voting and the election has an unpredictable feel to it and creates an atmosphere in which people can feel quite uncertain.

In such times, focus centres on the remaining pool of voters still up for grabs: the undecideds.

According to Tuesday’s 1News-Verian poll, 11% of its 1001 respondents either didn’t know or refused to say who they would vote for. Its previous poll last week had it as high as 13%, earning remarks from TVNZ’s Jack Tame on how those voters could impact the election.

Take that result and apply it to the number of New Zealanders enrolled to vote - 3,677,600 based on the Electoral Commission’s latest data – and there are almost 480,000 Kiwis who don’t know who they will vote for or won’t say.

For parties currently struggling (Labour and National), it offers a rallying cry, or at least a sliver of hope, for flagging supporters.

But are there really half a million votes still on the table? And are voters any more undecided than previous elections?

The proportion of undecided/refused to say respondents in 1News-Verian polls this year has ranged between 9-14%. Three years ago, 1News’ election-year polls showed a similar proportion of between 10% and 12%.

However, the 1News-Verian data differ from some other mainstream public polling, which suggests there are fewer undecided voters.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll on Tuesday put the proportion of undecided and “non-voters” at 5%. Thursday’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll had 2.5% of respondents who were undecided while a further 1.5% refused to say.

The largest proportion of undecided voters in an RNZ-Reid Research poll this year was 7.1% in March. Curia, which does monthly public polling for the Taxpayers’ Union, registered its largest combined proportion this year of 10.7% of respondents either undecided or refused to say in January. It has fluctuated between 3.4% and 9.1%.

In Curia’s May 2023 poll, 7% of respondents were undecided. In October of that year, the month of the election, it had decreased to 4%.

Establishing which numbers are most accurate is complicated by polling methodology. All three pollsters – Curia, Verian and Reid Research – have different approaches to polling which makes them difficult to compare.

For example, Reid Research is online only while Curia and Verian poll people via online and phone. Reid Research offers a randomised list of eligible political parties; Verian provides a list for online respondents but not for those contacted over the phone. Curia excludes respondents deemed unlikely or very unlikely to vote.

When it comes to people who say they are undecided, all three pollsters push the respondent in some form by asking if they are leaning towards a particular party.

Data from Curia suggests the additional question has an impact. Of Curia’s two latest polls, 9% of women polled said they were undecided compared to 3% of male respondents. That was prior to being asked again and they were referred to by Curia as the “soft undecided”.

After further probing, the proportion reduced to 4% of women remaining undecided and 1% of men, suggesting women were three times more likely than men to not currently know who they would vote for.

That may be unwelcome news for Labour and its allies given women tend to lean more left, but Curia’s data also showed that a greater proportion of over-60s, who typically lean more right, were undecided than those under 40.

It was also tricky to draw conclusions based on past voting history. In the last two polls, Curia found that of respondents who voted National in 2023, 7% were undecided compared to 5% of 2023 Labour voters. Act had 5% of its 2023 voters unsure, the Greens had 11% and NZ First 12%.

Pollsters spoken to by the Herald were wary of overstating the influence of undecided voters, particularly with less than a month to go until November 7 when the priority shifts towards making sure a party’s voters actually vote.

There are also doubts about the extent of strategic voting, something Te Pāti Māori is actively encouraging in the Māori seats. National is strongly discouraging the practice as some of its strongest MPs seeking re-election via the party’s list are at risk due to its poor polling.

During its campaign launch, National rolled out former PM and leader Sir John Key to warn supporters that it was not a prudent tactic, even if an overhang (created when a party wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to) on the right could make it more likely the coalition is re-elected. Leader Christopher Luxon described the approach as “insanely stupid”.

National may grow to regret how strongly it reacted as the phenomenon started appearing in focus groups of voters, some of whom felt belittled amid their frustration at Te Pāti Māori trying to create an overhang of its own.

Hopes of a big swing in support from any remaining indecisive voters seem unwise at this late stage. What is clearer is the issue driving voter sentiment: the cost of living.

Ranked as the top issue on Kiwis’ minds for months on end, its relevance was evident during Tuesday’s leaders’ debate when Chris Hipkins questioned viewers whether they felt better off while Luxon insisted some people were indeed feeling richer, leading TVNZ’s group of 100 undecided voters to resoundingly award that round to Hipkins.

The coalition parties face the added pressure of petrol prices breaching $3.50 per litre. Despite prices now rising higher than earlier in the year, the public outcry hasn’t yet been as loud, probably due to supply concerns abating.

But every candidate travelling past a fuel station in this campaign will be reminded of just how impactful those prices will be.

The coalition parties face the political reality of any Government support implemented before the election, or promised to kick in after it, appearing as bribing voters, leaving them few options other than to grin and bear it.

Progress towards any immediate support beyond the current $50-per-week increase for low-and-middle-income households, maintained while 91 sits above $3, doesn’t appear in sight. Both Hipkins and Luxon have committed to extending the temporary increase if prices remain high by March next year.

Fuel prices, coupled with falling house prices in major areas like Auckland, will do more to sway undecided voters than anything else this election.

Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.