New Zealand population growth: Natural increase lowest since World War II
New Zealand’s estimated natural increase in population is at its lowest since World War II.
In the latest national population estimates statistics released by Stats NZ, the estimated natural increase, calculated through births minus deaths, was 18,700 in the year ending June 2026.
This makes up 52% of the total population growth of 36,400, with estimated net migration being 17,600.
Meanwhile, in the three months to June 2026 the estimated natural increase was 4000, higher than the estimated net migration figure of 1500 over the same timespan.
A spokesman for Stats NZ said the figure has been trending downwards, being driven more so by an increase in deaths but also by fewer births.
“As New Zealand’s population has grown and aged, more people are reaching older ages, which leads to a higher number of deaths,” the spokesman said.
“Births in the June 2026 year have also dropped to the lowest since 2003.
“Together, these trends have reduced natural increase to its lowest level since the early 1940s, during World War II.”
Winston Peters and NZ First have already revealed policies aimed at increasing New Zealand’s birthrate, including a grant where parents receive $5000 a year for the first three years of the child’s life, applicable for up to three children.
Peters claimed the estimated cost would be $400 million by the third year once the full cycle is established, with him believing it would be an “essential investment in our country’s future demography, culture and sustainable economic future”.
At June 30, 2026, Stats NZ estimated the resident population of New Zealand was 5,357,300, consisting of 2,699,500 females and 2,657,800 males.
The median age of females in the country is 39.3 years old while it’s 37.8 years old for males.
By age group, 15-39 year-olds are the biggest with 1.83 million people and 40-64 is the second largest containing 1.63 million.
The smallest is 65+, having 930,500 people listed in that group with it steadily trending upward since the early 1990s.
The group seeing a decline in population is 0-14, which sits at 961,300 and is down from a 2024 high of 976,900.