I can’t see Christopher Luxon stepping down as leader any time soon – Heather du Plessis-Allan
I suspect the critics calling for Christopher Luxon’s head are set to be disappointed.
I can’t see him going anywhere in a hurry.
It’s not that the critics are wrong. Richard Prebble and Josie Pagani – to name two – have seen enough election results to know National’s 29% is nothing to be proud of.
The party may have done much better if it wasn’t weighed down by Luxon’s sub-zero popularity.
Also, he allowed a campaign that has been roundly criticised for being too negative, lacking vision and being too nasty. From Harry Mowbray (who is now under police investigation because the Nats narked on him) through to Chlöe Swarbrick (who they obsessed over on Instagram), they might have been more successful in creating enemies than converting voters. Luxon allowed that.
And then, after bringing in the third-lowest National Party result of the 21st century, Luxon read the room on the night like a man with vision impairment. He kept the country waiting until after midnight for his speech, swept up to the stage like he’d done National a favour in bringing home that big old 29%, and then delivered a sermon on horizons.
Between that and his original plan to make Opportunity leader Quilae Wong wait several days for someone in his team to set up a meeting, he was giving presidential vibes when the country barely wanted him to be prime minister.
Everything – from the result to the post-result behaviour – is screaming “roll me for the sake of the party”.
But it’s not going to happen.
At least, not without a triggering event.
Normally, an election is that event. MPs start freaking out that they might lose their jobs because the leader is dragging the party vote down.
That is exactly what happened. They freaked out in November, April and August but never rolled him, and now Chris Bishop, Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith and Gerry Brownlee are no longer in Parliament.
But that’s history now. The election is no longer a threat to jobs. The people left in caucus have survived and, short of a strange turn of events, they’re safe until 2029.
They won’t really turn their minds to that election until late 2028, which means Luxon is safe from election-related panic for another two years.
He might yet make a gaffe in the media big enough to get himself rolled. He’s done that before. Sometimes multiple times in one week. That is why the August attempted coup happened.
But this far out from the next election, the motivating factor for the caucus would be embarrassment, and in order to induce enough to spark a coup, the gaffe would have to be pretty seismic.
It may be possible for former National Party heavyweights to pressure him out with a targeted PR campaign. Depending on how you read it, the cryptic open letter from former party president Sue Wood this week might’ve been a gentle attempt at that. But that still requires caucus to feel the same. Currently, they’re probably more stressed about whether they can pull together a coalition than the mechanics of a coup.
Luxon could obviously decide to resign, realising that this is not a game he’s particularly good at. But that would take a degree of self-reflection we have not yet witnessed.
There is also the outside chance things go horribly wrong for him in the specials or the coalition negotiations, and he isn’t PM at the end of this month. That would be definite gone-burger territory. That’s the most likely fate of Chris Hipkins at this stage.
The truth is, Luxon has survived the thing that should’ve put an end to his leadership: the election. And even though it played out exactly as predicted under his leadership, many of his remaining MPs will just be grateful that they’re back.
Which means, if he survived that, there’s no pressing reason for him to go, is there?
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