US refiners see billions in profits from global fuel crunch
Valero Energy Corp has reported its most profitable quarter on record as measured by earnings per share, while PBF Energy Inc and HF Sinclair Corp reported the best profits since 2022 and 2023 respectively.
Next week, other refining giants like Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum Corp are set to report, with investors also expecting blockbuster results.
Years of refinery closures had already left fuel markets with little cushion. Now, the war with Iran has disrupted fuel exports from the Middle East while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have curbed exports of gasoline and diesel. Together, the disruptions have drained global fuel inventories and driven prices higher around the world.
With demand holding relatively steady, gasoline and diesel stockpiles are showing little sign of rebuilding, meaning markets will remain tight and prices will stay high. And while fuel production often slows into the fall, American refiners are indicating they will continue to chase near-record margins.
“Product inventories will be slow to rebuild, and the restocking that ultimately must occur should provide a favourable backdrop for refining margins over the quarters to come,” PBF Energy CEO Matthew C. Lucey said on an earnings call.
Valero’s second-quarter net income increased more than five-fold year-over-year, up to $3.7 billion from $714 million the previous year. HF Sinclair’s net income roughly quadrupled to $892m, while PBF’s rose over $1b from a loss in the same period of 2025.
Heading into the next quarter, Valero and HF Sinclair both projected minimal declines in the average amount of crude oil they process into fuel on a daily basis. PBF, which ran nearly 890,000 barrels a day of crude in the second quarter, expects a higher run rate of as much as 960,000 barrels a day next quarter. And the profits may look even better as the fuel crunch continues.
“The margin environment thus far is stronger than what we saw in the second quarter,” Valero chief operating officer Gary Simmons said on a call with equity analysts on Wednesday, citing cheaper crude oil costs.
And there’s little indication that fuel prices will ease soon, Simmons said.
Jet fuel prices, which eased some this summer from record highs, appear set to rise again, he said.
Diesel prices remain elevated as disruptions to Russian supplies have increased demand for US exports. Prices are likely to stay supported as buyers begin restocking ahead of the winter heating season, even at the higher costs.
Meanwhile, importing gasoline to the US from Europe doesn’t make economic sense, Simmons said, given that prices are elevated there as well. But exporting it to Latin America does, because an arbitrage opportunity exists. That’s keeping gasoline prices in the US elevated as well, Simmons said.
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